Process Tracing Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Research Question: Why did the French Revolution culminate in Napoleon Bonaparte's 18 Brumaire coup and the Consulate rather than a stable parliamentary republic, a revived Jacobin-dominated republic, or a royalist restoration?

Established within the accepted corpus: The corpus establishes bounded Directory institutions and stresses; Bonaparte's prestige and crisis-era availability; Sieyes's revision project and recruitment; brokerage and assigned roles; armed preparation; relocation and command observations; military positioning; executive changes; legislative resistance; armed entry; Lucien's intervention; expulsion; the proposed commission; proclamation; legal settlement; republican language; the Year VIII design; and later legitimacy-related observations. The only retained causal transition is contested: e10 connects the documented chamber confrontation and expulsion while leaving its causal meaning disputed. Other edges assert sequence only or remain unresolved.

Still contested or unresolved: Unresolved links concern leverage to recruitment, revision to brokerage and planning, armed preparation to relocation and command, command to positioning, positioning to protection, protection to Barras's resignation, expulsion to roundup and proposal, and pre-coup planning to later constitutional reshaping. Needed tests include dated correspondence, military orders, chamber minutes, attendance records, and constitutional drafting materials. Memoir and secondary-analysis chains remain source-dependent, and the private-correspondence gap remains open.

Secondary whole-story comparison

Secondary rank-1 hypothesis: Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and troop control into personal rule, using intimidation and elite brokers to transform a constitutional crisis into the Consulate. Rank 1 · comparative support 40% range 30%–50% · rank-stable Fragile prior-sensitive synthesis rank interpretation verified confirmatory eligible theory first

Hypotheses evaluated: 3 | Evidence items: 82 | Causal edges: 57

This report is limited to the supplied source material. The reviewed temporal account above is the authoritative summary; the retained extraction inventory is not an additional finding.

How to read the numbers: values are comparative support — each hypothesis's share of the evidence-weighted odds among the hypotheses listed here. They are not absolute probabilities of truth, not causal-effect sizes, and not counterfactual quantities; a hypothesis not on the list cannot be supported. Read the ranking and the support range / robustness / stability flags, not the third decimal.

Headline likelihood policy: Uncapped, continuous relevance. Preserve the elicited likelihood ratios and discount every nonzero item continuously on the log scale; source type does not set diagnostic strength. Legacy-policy dependence: rank changes under at least one legacy policy; maximum comparative-support shift 1%.

Terminal Claim Review

accepted

158 claims reviewed: 158 entailed, 0 overstated, 0 unsupported.

41 targets received fresh judgments; 0 accepted target judgments were carried forward under unchanged dependency hashes.

Read the reviewer assessment

All eight atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the supplied accepted evidence, so the target passes the provenance audit. All three atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the supplied evidence, so the target passes review. All four atomic historical propositions are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, including Sieyes's objectives, support, need for force, and risky recruitment of Bonaparte. All seven atomic historical claims are directly supported by the accepted evidence, including the stated limitation on establishing their internal order. Both atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, so the target is accepted. All three historical claims are directly entailed by the supplied evidence, so the review is accepted. The claim is directly entailed by the evidence describing military allies positioned across Paris at the specified sites. The sole historical claim is directly entailed by the accepted evidence. Both atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence describing Barras's resignation and the resulting loss of the Directory's executive body. All five atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, so the target passes review. All four atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, so the target passes review. All three atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, so the target passes the review. All four atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence describing the evening session and Chazal's proposals. Both atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted private-secretary memoir evidence. All five atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted decree and legal-transition evidence. All three atomic claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence describing the proclamation’s constitutional replacement, republican framing, and legitimating language. All four atomic claims are directly entailed by the accepted constitutional-design evidence. All five atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, so the review is accepted. Both component claims are directly supported by the supplied evidence, including its explicit limits on causal inference. All four atomic historical propositions are directly entailed by the accepted evidence. Both component processes are evidenced before Brumaire, but the available record does not securely establish their ordering or cross-sequence. Both claims are directly supported: the chronology is established, while the evidence limitations leave the competing control mechanisms unresolved. Both atomic claims are directly entailed by the accepted historical evidence, so the review is accepted. Both atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence. Both atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence without overstatement. Both event reports are supported, while the supplied record explicitly leaves their sequencing and connection unresolved. All three atomic claims are directly supported by the supplied evidence, including the conclusion that the causal mechanism remains unresolved. All four atomic claims are directly supported by the supplied historical evidence, so the target is accepted. All three atomic historical claims are directly supported by accepted evidence concerning the 19 Brumaire crisis. Both claims are supported: the corpus establishes temporal succession while leaving the commission's causal role in producing the proclamation unproven. Both claims are directly supported: the corpus records the sequence, but its evidence does not establish a causal link from proclamation to decree. Both atomic claims are directly supported by the supplied legal and proclamatory evidence. The claim is directly entailed by the supplied dates for the republican proclamation and the December Constitution of Year VIII. Both atomic claims are directly supported: the corpus records the relevant settlement and later observations, but explicitly retains evidentiary gaps concerning the causal production of later legitimacy. Both atomic historical claims are directly entailed by the accepted evidence, so the target passes review. All three claims are supported by the supplied historical evidence or the specified Bayesian artifact. All four claims are entailed by the supplied historical evidence or deterministic analysis artifacts. All six inventory claims are entailed by the accepted evidence or the designated analysis artifacts. All eight inventory claims are entailed by the supplied diagnostic and Bayesian artifacts, so the review is accepted. All eight claims are supported either by accepted source evidence or by the supplied deterministic testing and mechanism artifacts; no claim exceeds the documented support. Both inventory claims are supported: the first by direct historical evidence and the second by the supplied Bayesian ranking and posterior artifacts. All eight atomic historical claims are directly supported by the accepted evidence and accurately describe the recorded temporal sequence. All eight inventory claims are entailed by the accepted source evidence or the supplied mechanism-trace artifact. Both claims are supported: one by unresolved-link classifications in the mechanism trace and the other by explicit archival gaps in the accepted corpus.

Causal Account and Audit Views

Provenance boundary: Process shows extractor-produced topology and is not an independent causal audit. Reviewed mechanism shows the separately produced and independently audited stage/transition DAG.

Reviewed mechanism: the independently audited forward-only stage and transition DAG. Edge color and line style retain observed-sequence, supported, contested, and unresolved status.

Graph interpretation guide

How to Read This Network

This map is an analyst-facing projection of the mixed-methods research ontology, with separate process, inference, reviewed-mechanism, and full-audit views over one typed result. Events, evidence, hypotheses, actors, and mechanisms are node types. The driver/link toggles are edge layers and review filters; they are not additional kinds of causal things. The goal is to make within-case causal inference inspectable enough to automate, audit, and connect to quantitative designs.

Inference links and normalized hypothesis support are available for this confirmatory-eligible design.

Node type	Meaning	Count
Event	Dated occurrence that can participate in a causal sequence.	28
Evidence	Source-anchored observation, quotation, claim, or fact retained for testing or provenance. Neutral, low-relevance, and upstream-used items remain visible but do not update support. Evidence is not itself the same as a cause.	82
Hypothesis	Candidate explanation being compared by the Bayesian update.	3
Actor	Person or institution participating in the extracted process; shown in Process view.	25
Mechanism	Proposed generative process linking actions or events; positioned from incident dated nodes when it has no intrinsic date.	18
Reviewed stage	Stage in the independently audited forward-only mechanism DAG. Shown only in Reviewed mechanism view so it cannot be confused with extractor-produced topology.	18

Edge layer	How it is determined	Count
Extracted process edge	Extractor-produced source → target process relation. Evidence and hypotheses are hidden in Process view so evidentiary inference is not mistaken for causation.	57
Top drivers	Evidence → hypothesis links named in that hypothesis posterior's `top_drivers`. They are the largest update contributors, not necessarily favorable evidence.	9
Background drivers	Top-driver links whose evidence predates the source-packet focal year by more than five years. This is a temporal subclass of top drivers, not a separate causal entity.	0
Additional evidence links	Informative evidence → hypothesis links outside the neutral LR band [0.67, 1.50] that were not selected as top drivers.	8
Temporal/order conflicts	Extractor-produced relations that run backward across non-overlapping dates or would create a directed cycle at the available temporal granularity. They are retained for audit but excluded from the displayed causal DAG.	0
Reviewed transition	Independently audited stage-to-stage transition, retaining observed-sequence, supported, contested, or unresolved status.	18

Concrete examples from this run:

Extracted process edge: Directory → 1795 The Directory repl (created the Directory's institutional regime Evidence support: c01_evi_directory_institutional_design)
Top driver: Source D says the 1795 r → h1: Fragmented civilia (LR=1.00; top driver edge) — this is one of the largest updates for its target hypothesis; LR > 1 favors that target, LR < 1 weighs against it.
Background driver: No edge of this type was generated for this run.
Additional evidence link: Bonaparte's command of t → h2: Napoleon Bonaparte (LR=1.51)
Temporal conflict: No edge of this type was generated for this run. — toggle this on to inspect likely extraction or date-direction problems.

Interpretation rule: use Process view for the extracted temporal-generative topology, Inference view for why rival support changed, and Reviewed mechanism for the independently audited causal account. Read gray process arrows as extracted process claims that still need review. Read green/red evidence-to-hypothesis arrows as diagnostic support or opposition, not as a claim that the evidence node caused the hypothesis. A dashed driver can still be important because it is one of the largest updates available in a limited corpus, even if its absolute LR is weak. Evidence nodes without displayed edges are classified individually in the Evidence Inventory; hiding them from the first graph view is a readability filter, not deletion or a judgment that they lack evidentiary value.

Reviewed Mechanism Detail and Audit

Temporal Mechanism DAG

Established within this corpus
The corpus establishes bounded Directory institutions and stresses; Bonaparte's prestige and crisis-era availability; Sieyes's revision project and recruitment; brokerage and assigned roles; armed preparation; relocation and command observations; military positioning; executive changes; legislative resistance; armed entry; Lucien's intervention; expulsion; the proposed commission; proclamation; legal settlement; republican language; the Year VIII design; and later legitimacy-related observations. The only retained causal transition is contested: e10 connects the documented chamber confrontation and expulsion while leaving its causal meaning disputed. Other edges assert sequence only or remain unresolved.

Still unresolved
Unresolved links concern leverage to recruitment, revision to brokerage and planning, armed preparation to relocation and command, command to positioning, positioning to protection, protection to Barras's resignation, expulsion to roundup and proposal, and pre-coup planning to later constitutional reshaping. Needed tests include dated correspondence, military orders, chamber minutes, attendance records, and constitutional drafting materials. Memoir and secondary-analysis chains remain source-dependent, and the private-correspondence gap remains open.

Observed sequenceSupported causal linkContested causal linkUnresolved link

Select a stage or transition.

The graph shows the reviewed forward-only DAG. Selection reveals its exact evidence and causal assessment.

Text timeline and stage evidence

1. Directory design and accumulated stress

observed

The 1795 regime combined a five-member executive with two councils, a male taxpaying franchise, departmental electoral colleges, annual legislative contests, and some press freedom; Year VII elections were endorsed, political and factional crises placed stress on the regime, and many recently elected deputies viewed revision as an alternative to Jacobin terror or royalist restoration.

Date: 1795-1797

Evidence: c01_evi_directory_institutional_design, c01_evi_directory_early_stresses, c04_evi_directory_republican_features, c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed, c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes

Predictions: pred_h3_01

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

2. Bonaparte’s military leverage during renewed crisis

observed

Bonaparte gained military prestige, returned during political and military crisis, and arrived at Frejus amid public acclaim and renewed war.

Date: 1795-1799

Evidence: c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection, c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy, c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige, c01_evi_eastern_campaign_failures, c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis, c01_evi_frejus_popularity_and_crisis

Predictions: none

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

3. Civilian revision project and risky recruitment

observed

Sieyes pursued a stronger executive and voluntary revision with financial-sector support, sought military force, and recruited Bonaparte despite mutual distrust and perceived risk.

Date: 1799 before Brumaire

Evidence: c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive, c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support, c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan, c01_evi_sieyes_needed_military_force, c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument, c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations

Predictions: pred_h1_01

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

4. Brokerage, assigned roles, and coup planning

observed

Mediators linked Sieyes and Bonaparte, and Bonaparte joined Sieyes's coalition; Bonaparte shifted from considering a directorship toward seeking the whole office, the conspiracy assigned institutional and police roles and met at Bonaparte’s apartment to select 18 Brumaire, and Bonaparte's plan was known only to selected assistants. The corpus does not establish the internal order of these observations.

Date: 1799 before 18 Brumaire

Evidence: c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage, c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining, c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation, c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes, c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim, c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan, c02_evi_conspiracy_roles, c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment

Predictions: pred_h1_01

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

5. Pre-coup armed preparation

observed

Bonaparte deceived Barras about the next day's plans and summoned Lefebvre and loyal officers to assemble armed and uniformed before the formal transfer.

Date: 17-18 Brumaire

Evidence: c02_evi_barras_deception, c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly, c02_evi_prepositioned_generals

Predictions: pred_h1_01, pred_h2_01, pred_h2_03

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

6. Relocation and operational command

observed

A Jacobin-plot rumor helped secure relocation of the assemblies to Saint-Cloud, and staggered notices reportedly produced a false majority for the Ancients' relocation; Bonaparte received command of the 17th Division with freedom to act.

Date: 18 Brumaire

Evidence: c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation, c02_evi_false_majority_ancients, c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act

Predictions: pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

7. Strategic military positioning

observed

Bonaparte’s allies occupied ministries, bridges, legislative sites, and routes across Paris.

Date: 18 Brumaire

Evidence: c02_evi_coercive_perimeter

Predictions: pred_h2_01, pred_h2_03, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

8. Protection of Gohier and Moulin

observed

Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin.

Date: 18 Brumaire

Evidence: c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized

Predictions: none

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

9. Barras resigns and the Directory loses its executive body

observed

Talleyrand secured Barras’s resignation, and the Directory lost its executive body.

Date: 18 Brumaire

Evidence: c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body

Predictions: none

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

10. Legislative suspicion and constitutional vows

observed

Legislative votes remained necessary for a new constitution; Bonaparte declined to defend the existing Constitution before the Ancients, many Council members saw through the claimed threat and suspected a trap, and deputies renewed their vows to the Constitution of Year III.

Date: 19 Brumaire, early session

Evidence: c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary, c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense, c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day, c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows

Predictions: pred_h3_01, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

11. Armed entry and chamber resistance

observed

Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed grenadiers and faced resistance, accusations of unlawful action, and loss of composure.

Date: 19 Brumaire

Evidence: c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance, c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure

Predictions: pred_h2_01, pred_h2_03, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

12. Liberty framing and expulsion of representatives

observed

Lucien called troops to defend Bonaparte and framed intervention in terms of liberty; at Bonaparte’s signal, Murat and grenadiers drove out representatives.

Date: 19 Brumaire

Evidence: c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops, c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame, c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence, c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies

Predictions: pred_h2_01, pred_h2_03, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

13. Roundup and proposed executive commission

observed

Several hundred deputies were rounded up before an evening session where Chazal proposed endorsing the events, abolishing the Directory, and creating an executive commission.

Date: 19 Brumaire, evening

Evidence: c03_evi_roundup_and_commission, c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission

Predictions: pred_h2_03, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

14. Immediate proclamation

observed

After the forceful expulsion, Bonaparte dictated a proclamation intended to shape discussion in Paris the next morning.

Date: 19 Brumaire, late night

Evidence: c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation

Predictions: pred_h2_01, pred_h2_03, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

15. Consular decree and legislative adjournment

observed

The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named Sieyes, Roger-Ducos, and Bonaparte as Consuls in an executive commission that received directorial power, created reduced legislative commissions, and adjourned the legislature.

Date: 10 November 1799

Evidence: c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls, c03_evi_legislative_adjournment, c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions

Predictions: pred_h1_02, pred_h2_02, pred_h3_02

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

16. Republican restoration language

observed

The Consuls’ proclamation presented constitutional replacement as a re-established republic founded on equality, liberty, and representation, while invoking republican constitutional language.

Date: 10-12 November 1799

Evidence: c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language, c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise

Predictions: pred_h3_03

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

17. Year VIII institutional settlement

observed

The Constitution of Year VIII filtered political selection through citizenship lists and a Senate, limited legislative deliberation, named Bonaparte First Consul, and gave the First Consul broad appointment and decision powers.

Date: December 1799

Evidence: c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists, c03_evi_senate_selection_power, c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction, c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits, c03_evi_first_consul_named, c03_evi_first_consul_appointments, c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices, c03_evi_government_security_control, c03_evi_military_subordination_rule, c03_evi_legal_emergency_channel, c04_evi_coup_within_coup, c04_evi_year_viii_reduced_rights_language

Predictions: pred_h1_02, pred_h2_02, pred_h3_03

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

18. Later legitimacy evidence

observed

The corpus records later military success, repression of lawlessness, religious reconciliation, initial insecurity, and plebiscite returns that Lucien effectively doubled.

Date: 1800-1801 and later returns

Evidence: c04_evi_consulate_initially_insecure, c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup, c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns

Predictions: none

Rivals: h1, h2, h3

Reading rule. Left-to-right order is necessary but not sufficient for causation. Only green supported links assert corpus-grounded causal leverage; sequence, contested, and unresolved links retain their weaker status.

Transition	Status	Evidence	Rivals	Assessment	Missing test
`s1` → `s2` The Directory’s stressed institutional setting preceded Bonaparte’s crisis-era leverage.	observed sequence	`c01_evi_directory_early_stresses`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus records both the earlier Directory stresses and later Bonaparte prestige and availability, but does not establish that the former caused the latter.	not applicable
`s2` → `s3` The corpus records Bonaparte's military prestige and crisis-era return, Sieyes's stronger-executive project, and Sieyes's recruitment of Bonaparte as separate observations.	unresolved link	`c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis`, `c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The evidence separately records Bonaparte's military prestige and crisis-era return, Sieyes's stronger-executive project, and Bonaparte's risky recruitment.	Private correspondence or dated planning records establishing whether Bonaparte’s availability preceded and influenced recruitment and revision decisions.
`s3` → `s4` The revision and recruitment stage preceded recorded brokerage and planning, while the internal order of mediation, role allocation, and planning remains unspecified.	unresolved link	`c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan`, `c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation`, `c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`, `c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	Both the revision project and brokerage/planning are documented before Brumaire, but their cross-sequence is not securely dated.	Dated correspondence or records establishing the order between revision/recruitment and brokerage/planning.
`s4` → `s5` Recorded conspiracy planning was followed by armed preparation before the formal transfer.	observed sequence	`c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`, `c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`, `c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The evidence dates planning weeks or days before the armed assembly. It does not by itself distinguish civilian coordination from Bonaparte’s independent control.	not applicable
`s4` → `s16` The corpus records pre-coup planning and the later Year VIII institutional reshaping separately; their continuing causal connection is unresolved.	unresolved link	`c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`, `c04_evi_coup_within_coup`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus separately records Sieyes's pre-coup revision plan and an interpretation that Bonaparte later reshaped the new constitution.	Private correspondence and drafting records showing whether the pre-coup plan constrained or was displaced during the Year VIII settlement.
`s5` → `s6` The corpus records armed preparation, relocation, and the granting of operational command during the 18 Brumaire crisis.	unresolved link	`c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`, `c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`, `c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The evidence records armed assembly before the formal transfer, relocation, and the command arrangement.	Dated records establishing the order among armed assembly, relocation, and the command grant.
`s6` → `s7` The command gave Bonaparte freedom to act, and his allies occupied strategic positions across Paris.	unresolved link	`c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`, `c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The evidence records the operational freedom conferred by command and the occupation of strategic positions across Paris.	Dated orders linking the command grant to the occupation of strategic positions across Paris.
`s7` → `s8` The evidence records Bonaparte's allies occupying strategic positions and Moreau and three hundred men protecting Gohier and Moulin.	unresolved link	`c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`, `c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The evidence records Bonaparte's allies occupying a military perimeter and Moreau and three hundred men protecting Gohier and Moulin.	Contemporaneous orders and executive records linking the perimeter to Moreau's protection arrangement.
`s8` → `s8b` The protection of Gohier and Moulin and Barras’s separately recorded resignation occurred during the executive crisis of 18 Brumaire.	unresolved link	`c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`, `c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	Moreau's protection arrangement and Barras's resignation are both recorded during the crisis, but their order or connection is not established.	Obtain dated executive records, correspondence, or orders establishing whether and how the two actions were connected.
`s8b` → `s9` The executive changes were followed by legislative suspicion and renewed constitutional vows.	observed sequence	`c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`, `c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`, `c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The evidence dates the executive changes to 18 Brumaire and the vows and suspicion to 19 Brumaire; it does not establish that the former caused legislative resistance.	not applicable
`s9` → `s10` The need for legislative votes, legislative suspicion, and constitutional vows preceded armed entry and chamber resistance.	observed sequence	`c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary`, `c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows`, `c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`, `c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus directly records the ratification requirement, early session, subsequent armed entry, and competing revisionist and personalist interpretations.	not applicable
`s10` → `s11` Chamber resistance was followed by Lucien’s liberty framing and the expulsion of representatives.	contested causal link	`c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance`, `c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure`, `c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops`, `c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame`, `c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence`, `c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus records resistance, Lucien's appeal to troops, troop intervention, and representative expulsion.	Contemporaneous orders and chamber records showing whether Bonaparte’s command, Lucien’s intervention, or broader institutional breakdown determined the expulsion.
`s11` → `s12` The corpus records representative expulsion, a roundup, and an evening session proposing an executive commission.	unresolved link	`c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence`, `c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus records representative expulsion, the roundup, and the evening commission proposal during the Brumaire crisis.	Contemporaneous attendance lists, minutes, and orders linking the forceful expulsion to the roundup and the evening commission session.
`s12` → `s13` The roundup and proposed commission were followed by Bonaparte’s immediate proclamation.	observed sequence	`c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`, `c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus dates the evening session and the late-night proclamation in succession, without proving that the commission caused the proclamation.	not applicable
`s13` → `s14` The immediate proclamation preceded the formal consular decree and legislative adjournment.	observed sequence	`c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation`, `c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_legislative_adjournment`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus records the proclamation after expulsion and the decree’s later formal settlement; it does not establish that the proclamation produced the decree.	not applicable
`s14` → `s15` The consular decree was followed by republican restoration language.	observed sequence	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language`, `c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The legal and proclamatory texts record institutional succession and republican claims.	not applicable
`s15` → `s16` Republican restoration language preceded the Year VIII institutional settlement.	observed sequence	`c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`, `c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus dates the republican proclamation before the December constitution.	not applicable
`s16` → `s17` The Year VIII settlement is followed in the corpus by later legitimacy evidence and plebiscite-return reporting.	observed sequence	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`, `c04_evi_consulate_initially_insecure`, `c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup`, `c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns`	`h1`, `h2`, `h3`	The corpus records the institutional settlement and later military, religious, repression, and plebiscite observations; it does not establish a complete causal account of later legitimacy.	not applicable

Independent stage and edge audit

Independent mechanism audit: accepted

Attempts
1

Candidate hash
24f6cff85898b6f45a1dd81f6ae6017c51cce1bf7f6a346b57579981afb71673

Final hash
6650f81c0ca521824f274e8e68b13db8a4b9131a87bd097401195e052c0ea8d9

The candidate is corpus-adequate after retaining all observed stages and weakening no edge beyond its already conservative status. It supports a detailed sequence and one contested transition, but does not establish a supported causal link explaining why the Consulate prevailed over the rival settlements.

Audit lineage

Attempt	Action	Reviewer model	Candidate hash	Omissions
1	initial_audit	openrouter/openai/gpt-5.6-luna	`24f6cff85898b6f45a1dd81f6ae6017c51cce1bf7f6a346b57579981afb71673`	0

Cumulative repair constraints

Type	Target	Evidence	Predictions	Finding	Required action	Missing test
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:s8`	`c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Moreau's troops contained Gohier and Moulin.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records Moreau and three hundred men protecting Gohier and Moulin. Use the recorded protection wording; do not strengthen it to containment.	Use the recorded protection wording; do not strengthen it to containment.
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:current_s1`	`c04_evi_directory_republican_features`, `c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed`, `c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes`	`pred_h3_01`	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Republican paths were already closed before Brumaire.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The Directory retained recorded republican capacities, Year VII elections were endorsed, and many recently elected deputies viewed revision as an alternative to Jacobin terror or royalist restoration. Represent the bounded pre-Brumaire capacities and deputy standpoint in the existing Directory precondition stage without treating them as a completed alternative settlement.	Represent the bounded pre-Brumaire capacities and deputy standpoint in the existing Directory precondition stage without treating them as a completed alternative settlement.
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:s10`	`c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Deputies recognized the danger.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records that many Council members saw through the claimed threat and suspected a trap. State the bounded observation without generalizing it to all deputies.	State the bounded observation without generalizing it to all deputies.
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:current_s6`	`c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`, `c02_evi_false_majority_ancients`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The rumor and staggered notices jointly secured a false majority.	Retain only this accepted proposition: A Jacobin-plot rumor helped secure relocation, while staggered notices reportedly produced a false majority for the Ancients' relocation. State the two recorded procedural observations separately; do not combine them into one causal proposition.	State the two recorded procedural observations separately; do not combine them into one causal proposition.
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:current_s12`	`c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The evening session endorsed the events and abolished the Directory.	Retain only this accepted proposition: Chazal proposed endorsing the events, abolishing the Directory, and creating an executive commission. Preserve the proposal status; do not convert the evening proposal into accomplished endorsement or abolition.	Preserve the proposal status; do not convert the evening proposal into accomplished endorsement or abolition.
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:coverage_completion`	`c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support`, `c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Any of those observations alone determined the coup outcome.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The mechanism retains Sieyes's financial support, mutual distrust in negotiations, Bonaparte's whole-office aim, and his refusal to defend the existing Constitution before the Ancients. Represent each bounded observation in its existing stage without inferring an exclusive causal effect.	Represent each bounded observation in its existing stage without inferring an exclusive causal effect.
enforce terminal constraint	`stage:current_s4`	`c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Mediated cooperation was followed by role allocation.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records mediated cooperation and records assigned conspiracy roles. Retain both observations in the stage without asserting an unsupported temporal order and without manufacturing a transition solely to connect them.	Retain both observations in the stage without asserting an unsupported temporal order and without manufacturing a transition solely to connect them.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e2`	`c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis`, `c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Sequence from Bonaparte leverage to the whole s3 bundle is unresolved.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The evidence separately records Bonaparte's military prestige and crisis-era return, Sieyes's stronger-executive project, and Bonaparte's risky recruitment. Use only the positive recorded observations; do not use internal graph shorthand or assert an unsupported bundled sequence.	Use only the positive recorded observations; do not use internal graph shorthand or assert an unsupported bundled sequence.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e7`	`c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`, `c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The perimeter and protection arrangement are separate observations.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The evidence records Bonaparte's allies occupying a military perimeter and Moreau and three hundred men protecting Gohier and Moulin. State the two positive observations without adding a claim about how the source structures them.	State the two positive observations without adding a claim about how the source structures them.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e6`	`c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`, `c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The command was followed by subsequent positioning.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The evidence records the operational freedom conferred by command and the occupation of strategic positions across Paris. Retain the positive observations and mark the link unresolved; do not add unsupported temporal or causal ordering.	Retain the positive observations and mark the link unresolved; do not add unsupported temporal or causal ordering.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:e5`	none	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The audit rejects mobilization alone as a distinctive h2 discriminator.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The audit artifact supplies only its recorded discriminator findings. Do not name an audit finding absent from the supplied artifact.	Do not name an audit finding absent from the supplied artifact.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e5`	`c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`, `c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`, `c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The relocation was an emergency relocation.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records armed preparation, relocation, and the granting of operational command during the 18 Brumaire crisis. Use the neutral recorded relocation wording and leave the ordering among the three observations unresolved.	Use the neutral recorded relocation wording and leave the ordering among the three observations unresolved.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:e7`	none	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The endpoints and order are explicitly recorded and the edge assigns no exclusive control.	Retain only this accepted proposition: A link must name only corpus-recorded endpoints, order, and hypothesis assignment. Mark unsupported endpoint, order, or hypothesis assertions unresolved instead of asserting them.	Mark unsupported endpoint, order, or hypothesis assertions unresolved instead of asserting them.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:e11`	`c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`, `c04_evi_coup_within_coup`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Both endpoints are observed.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records pre-coup planning and later reshaping separately. Do not claim both endpoints are directly established unless each is cited and retained.	Do not claim both endpoints are directly established unless each is cited and retained.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:e14`	`c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence`, `c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The corpus does not assert that expulsion caused the roundup.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records expulsion and roundup without establishing their causal relation. State only the positive recorded observations; do not make unsupported corpus-absence claims.	State only the positive recorded observations; do not make unsupported corpus-absence claims.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:e15`	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: No reduced-session causal claim is made.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The repaired mechanism must not attribute the decree to a reduced session absent direct evidence. Remove the unsupported methodological-absence assertion; retain only supported event claims.	Remove the unsupported methodological-absence assertion; retain only supported event claims.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e15`	`c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`, `c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The language constrained or merely accompanied the institutional design.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus dates the republican proclamation before the December constitution. Retain only the positive recorded sequence; do not assert an unsupported language-mechanism distinction.	Retain only the positive recorded sequence; do not assert an unsupported language-mechanism distinction.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e18`	`c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`, `c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The corpus does not establish that the protection arrangement caused Barras's resignation.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The evidence records Moreau's protection arrangement and Barras's resignation during the 18 Brumaire executive crisis. Retain only the two positive recorded observations; do not assert an unsupported corpus-absence claim.	Retain only the two positive recorded observations; do not assert an unsupported corpus-absence claim.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:current_e17`	`c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan`, `c04_evi_coup_within_coup`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: Bonaparte later reshaped Sieyes's plan.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus separately records Sieyes's pre-coup revision plan and an interpretation that Bonaparte later reshaped the new constitution. Keep the two observations separate and name the new constitution as the object of Bonaparte's later reshaping.	Keep the two observations separate and name the new constitution as the object of Bonaparte's later reshaping.
enforce terminal constraint	`transition:e20`	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`, `c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup`, `c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns`	none	The prior central review rejected this corpus-exceeding proposition: The settlement preceded later consolidation developments and the returns were not validation.	Retain only this accepted proposition: The corpus records institutional settlement and later legitimacy evidence, including doubled plebiscite returns. Avoid unsupported full ordering and absence-of-characterization claims; report only cited observations.	Avoid unsupported full ordering and absence-of-characterization claims; report only cited observations.

Terminal constraint-satisfaction judgments

Constraint	Disposition	Candidate stages	Candidate edges	Reasoning
`mrc_feb74749bb58e3c8af23232f`	satisfied	`s8`	none	s8 retains only the recorded protection wording.
`mrc_8c877dbe5bf9f1b8b8695c8a`	satisfied	`s1`	none	s1 retains bounded republican capacities, endorsed elections, and deputy fears without claiming alternatives were closed.
`mrc_929aba44dc59e15999e0a270`	satisfied	`s9`	none	s9 limits the claim to many Council members and does not generalize it to all deputies.
`mrc_13d40bd48437103cd5566341`	satisfied	`s6`	none	s6 states the rumor and reported false-majority observations separately.
`mrc_f8332da0e7e02b47f811ef06`	satisfied	`s12`	none	s12 preserves Chazal's proposal status rather than treating endorsement or abolition as accomplished there.
`mrc_0c4f3f912033188b0f8e02a0`	satisfied	`s3`, `s4`, `s9`	none	The financial support, mutual distrust, whole-office aim, and refusal to defend the existing Constitution are retained as bounded observations.
`mrc_e2df6ab65111d588287cda36`	satisfied	`s4`	none	s4 retains mediated cooperation and assigned roles without asserting their internal order.
`mrc_6e53822ab1d5c2dc582e9a67`	satisfied	`s2`, `s3`	`e2`	e2 remains unresolved and states only the separately recorded observations.
`mrc_3bc548c066389024472a149a`	satisfied	`s7`, `s8`	`e7`	e7 retains the perimeter and protection observations without linking them.
`mrc_d33473157abcdec66e515060`	satisfied	`s6`, `s7`	`e6`	e6 remains unresolved and does not assert that command preceded positioning.
`mrc_063fbd0fac64f48d9dd3974a`	satisfied	`s5`, `s6`	`e5`	e5 uses neutral crisis wording and does not introduce an absent audit finding.
`mrc_b8bb19c8f04a9e178d388353`	satisfied	`s5`, `s6`	`e5`	e5 leaves the ordering among preparation, relocation, and command unresolved.
`mrc_2ac268b1add4947920162337`	satisfied	`s7`, `s8`	`e7`	e7 marks unsupported ordering and control claims unresolved.
`mrc_6742d48e4ff3d543d7934186`	satisfied	`s4`, `s16`	`e17`	e17 preserves the two cited observations and identifies the new constitution as the object of later reshaping.
`mrc_b067f050191825da18c42e79`	satisfied	`s11`, `s12`	`e11`	e11 records expulsion and roundup/proposal without claiming that expulsion caused them.
`mrc_b88b58734db4e0ba56be41f4`	satisfied	`s14`	`e13`	The candidate retains supported decree claims and makes no reduced-session causal attribution.
`mrc_a997d878aff0139f32a052ba`	satisfied	`s15`, `s16`	`e15`	e15 states only the positive sequence from republican proclamation to the December settlement.
`mrc_d845a52242b3e1baff2d1673`	satisfied	`s8`, `s8b`	`e18`	e18 retains only the two executive-crisis observations and remains unresolved.
`mrc_ae002543a7cc424e64bbc038`	satisfied	`s3`, `s16`	`e17`	e17 keeps Sieyes's plan separate from the interpretation of later constitutional reshaping.
`mrc_f545a079b75b694e2c615d41`	satisfied	`s16`, `s17`	`e16`	e16 reports institutional settlement and later legitimacy evidence without calling the returns validation or asserting a fuller ordering.

Stage judgments and recommendations

Stage	Disposition	Candidate / critic evidence	Candidate / critic predictions	Reasoning	Recommendation	Missing test
`s1`	accepted	`c01_evi_directory_institutional_design`, `c01_evi_directory_early_stresses`, `c04_evi_directory_republican_features`, `c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed`, `c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes`	`pred_h3_01`	All factual clauses are grounded by the cited institutional, stress, electoral, and deputy-standpoint evidence.	Retain as a bounded precondition; do not infer that alternatives were already closed.	not applicable
`s2`	accepted	`c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige`, `c01_evi_eastern_campaign_failures`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis`, `c01_evi_frejus_popularity_and_crisis`	none	Prestige, crisis-era return, Frejus acclaim, and renewed war are each cited observations.	Retain without treating leverage as causally established.	not applicable
`s3`	accepted	`c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive`, `c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support`, `c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan`, `c01_evi_sieyes_needed_military_force`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument`, `c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations`	`pred_h1_01`	The cited evidence directly records stronger-executive revision, financial support, military recruitment, risk, and mutual distrust.	Retain the bounded project and recruitment observations; leave their causal connection to leverage unresolved.	not applicable
`s4`	accepted	`c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage`, `c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining`, `c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan`, `c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`, `c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`	`pred_h1_01`	Brokerage, coalition choice, whole-office aim, secrecy, assigned roles, and the planning meeting are all cited. The stage appropriately avoids ordering them internally.	Retain without asserting that mediation preceded role allocation or planning.	not applicable
`s5`	accepted	`c02_evi_barras_deception`, `c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`, `c02_evi_prepositioned_generals`	`pred_h1_01`, `pred_h2_01`, `pred_h2_03`	Deception and armed assembly are directly recorded before the formal transfer.	Retain as observed preparation, not as proof of exclusive personal control.	not applicable
`s6`	accepted	`c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`, `c02_evi_false_majority_ancients`, `c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`	`pred_h3_02`	The rumor, reported false majority, and command with operational freedom are separately cited observations.	Retain the neutral procedural wording; do not combine rumor and notices into one causal proposition.	not applicable
`s7`	accepted	`c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`	`pred_h2_01`, `pred_h2_03`, `pred_h3_02`	The military positioning across ministries, bridges, legislative sites, and routes is directly cited.	Retain as positioning, without attributing its effects beyond the unresolved edges.	not applicable
`s8`	accepted	`c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`	none	The stage uses the recorded wording that Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin.	Retain; do not replace protection with containment or neutralization.	not applicable
`s8b`	accepted	`c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`	none	Barras's resignation and the Directory's loss of its executive body are directly recorded.	Retain as an observed executive change without inferring its connection to the protection arrangement.	not applicable
`s9`	accepted	`c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense`, `c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`, `c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows`	`pred_h3_01`, `pred_h3_02`	The cited evidence records the continuing vote requirement, Bonaparte's refusal to defend the existing Constitution, bounded suspicion, and renewed vows.	Retain the bounded claim about many members; do not generalize suspicion to all deputies.	not applicable
`s10`	accepted	`c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance`, `c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure`	`pred_h2_01`, `pred_h2_03`, `pred_h3_02`	Armed entry, resistance, accusations, and Bonaparte's loss of composure are directly cited.	Retain as an observed confrontation, without treating it alone as the decisive cause of expulsion.	not applicable
`s11`	accepted	`c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops`, `c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame`, `c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence`, `c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies`	`pred_h2_01`, `pred_h2_03`, `pred_h3_02`	Lucien's call and liberty framing, Bonaparte's signal, and troop-driven expulsion are directly recorded.	Retain the sequence while preserving uncertainty about its broader causal meaning.	not applicable
`s12`	accepted	`c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	`pred_h2_03`, `pred_h3_02`	The stage correctly distinguishes the roundup from Chazal's proposal and does not claim that abolition or endorsement was accomplished at that session.	Retain the proposal status exactly.	not applicable
`s13`	accepted	`c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation`	`pred_h2_01`, `pred_h2_03`, `pred_h3_02`	The proclamation and its intended communicative purpose are directly recorded after the expulsion.	Retain as an immediate proclamation, not as proof that it caused the decree.	not applicable
`s14`	accepted	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_legislative_adjournment`, `c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions`	`pred_h1_02`, `pred_h2_02`, `pred_h3_02`	The decree's consuls, executive authority, legislative commissions, and adjournment are directly grounded in the legal evidence.	Retain the institutional propositions without attributing them to a reduced-session causal process.	not applicable
`s15`	accepted	`c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language`, `c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`	`pred_h3_03`	The cited texts present constitutional replacement in republican terms and promise a re-established republic founded on equality, liberty, and representation.	Retain as official language, without inferring its causal effect on institutional design.	not applicable
`s16`	accepted	`c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists`, `c03_evi_senate_selection_power`, `c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction`, `c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`, `c03_evi_first_consul_appointments`, `c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices`, `c03_evi_government_security_control`, `c03_evi_military_subordination_rule`, `c03_evi_legal_emergency_channel`, `c04_evi_coup_within_coup`, `c04_evi_year_viii_reduced_rights_language`	`pred_h1_02`, `pred_h2_02`, `pred_h3_03`	Citizenship lists, Senate selection, limited legislative deliberation, Bonaparte's office, appointment authority, and decision sufficiency are all cited.	Retain as the observed Year VIII settlement; avoid broader labels not supplied by the corpus.	not applicable
`s17`	accepted	`c04_evi_consulate_initially_insecure`, `c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup`, `c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns`	none	Initial insecurity, later military and religious developments, repression of lawlessness, and Lucien's doubled returns are cited observations.	Retain as later legitimacy-related evidence without treating it as a complete consolidation mechanism.	not applicable

Conservative corrections

No edge statuses required correction.

Edge judgments

Edge	Disposition	Final status	Evidence assessment	Reasoning	Missing test
`e1`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The corpus dates Directory stresses before Bonaparte's later prestige and availability but does not trace a causal transition.	not applicable
`e2`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	Prestige, return, revision, and recruitment are separately observed. Source dependence and the absence of direct correspondence prevent a transition claim.	Obtain dated private correspondence or planning records linking Bonaparte's availability to Sieyes's recruitment and revision decisions.
`e3`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	Revision, brokerage, role allocation, and planning are documented, but their cross-sequence is not securely dated; Source F is retrospective and Source G is transmitted analysis.	Obtain dated correspondence or records establishing the order among revision, recruitment, brokerage, role allocation, and planning.
`e4`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The corpus dates planning before armed assembly. It does not establish whether civilian coordination or Bonaparte independently controlled the preparation.	not applicable
`e5`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	Armed preparation, relocation, and command are recorded during the crisis, but the ordering among them is unresolved.	Obtain dated orders, notices, or minutes establishing the order among armed assembly, relocation, and command.
`e6`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	Operational freedom and strategic positioning are both observed, but the corpus does not establish that the former produced the latter.	Obtain dated military orders linking the command grant to positioning across Paris.
`e7`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	The perimeter and Moreau's protection arrangement are separate positive observations; no linking order or exclusive control is established.	Obtain contemporaneous orders or executive records linking the perimeter to the protection arrangement.
`e18`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	Protection of Gohier and Moulin and Barras's resignation are both recorded during the crisis, without an established connection or secure order.	Obtain dated executive records, correspondence, or orders connecting the two actions.
`e8`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	Executive changes are recorded on 18 Brumaire and suspicion and constitutional vows on 19 Brumaire; causation is not established.	not applicable
`e9`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The vote requirement and early legislative resistance precede the armed entry and chamber confrontation. The sequence does not itself establish the transition's cause.	not applicable
`e10`	accepted	contested causal link	contested transition	The corpus directly records resistance, Lucien's intervention, Bonaparte's signal, and expulsion. Its causal meaning remains contested between personalist coercion and crisis-generated institutional rupture; the sources are not independent corroboration.	Compare contemporaneous orders and chamber records to determine whose command and which institutional conditions determined expulsion.
`e11`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	Expulsion, roundup, and the evening proposal are observed, but the transition from expulsion to roundup and proposal is not established.	Obtain attendance lists, minutes, and orders linking expulsion, roundup, and the evening proposal.
`e12`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The evening proposal and late-night proclamation are recorded in succession; the proposal is not shown to have caused the proclamation.	not applicable
`e13`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The proclamation precedes the later formal decree in the supplied chronology. No causal production claim is warranted.	not applicable
`e14`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The decree and republican language are sequentially documented; the language's causal effect is not established.	not applicable
`e15`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The republican proclamation is dated before the December Year VIII settlement. No language-mechanism distinction is asserted.	not applicable
`e16`	accepted	observed sequence	temporal order only	The corpus reports the institutional settlement and later legitimacy-related observations, including doubled returns, without supplying a complete consolidation mechanism.	not applicable
`e17`	accepted	unresolved link	endpoint only	The corpus separately records Sieyes's pre-coup revision plan and Crook's interpretation that Bonaparte later reshaped the new constitution; it does not establish their causal connection.	Obtain private planning and constitutional drafting records showing whether the pre-coup plan constrained or was displaced during the Year VIII settlement.

Omission review and recommendations

Severity	Target	Grounding	Finding	Evidence	Predictions	Recommendation	Missing test
No omitted stage or transition findings.

Output Quality Audit

This audit highlights conditions that can make a ranked result misleading even when the pipeline contract is valid.

Temporal Evidence Mix. Focal year: 1799. Background: 0; intermediate: 5; proximate: 76; downstream: 1; unknown: 0 (total 82).

Effective Evidence vs raw counts. The report lists 82 raw evidence items; 81 are eligible for updating after exclusions and exact-zero relevance neutralization. Every positive relevance value contributes continuously. Dependence pooling estimates about 7.4 effective evidence observations across 19 declared group(s), with 81 eligible grouped item(s). Raw counts can overstate corroboration when items share a source, event, or mechanism.

Network Coverage. The causal network has 156 nodes and 74 edges. The first view hides 85 isolated nodes by default, but they are not discarded; the network toggle restores them and the Evidence Inventory keeps the full list. 69 evidence item(s) currently have no visual edge because they are not top drivers and do not clear the displayed LR threshold. Every item has a visible analytical disposition: 0 excluded from updating, 1 zero-relevance, 20 near-neutral, and 49 tested weak-signal item(s). Top hypothesis h2 has visual degree 9.

Corpus-Conditional Methodology Review

Current scholarly status: The methodological application clears the given-source critique gate. This is not a claim of historical truth, source completeness, or decisive evidentiary resolution; it means the accepted partition, provenance, updating, calibration, and report contracts are coherent conditional on the accepted source set.

Automated Contract Check: complete for the accepted-source run. No structural blocker detected. Independent disciplinary argument quality and historical truth are not assessed by this check.

Claim-Scope Caveat: the critique above is conditional on the accepted source set. These source-scope limits cap broader publication-strength claims, but they are not themselves criticisms of whether the analysis is coherent given the supplied sources:

source-packet gaps or limitations

Accepted-source status: Source packet accepted for 18 Brumaire: 7 source(s), kinds: historiography, memoir, primary constitutional text, primary legal text, primary proclamation, scholarly archival analysis, secondary narrative; high-priority gaps: 1 unresolved of 1; 7/7 packet source(s) represented in extracted evidence.

Do not treat this as a flaw in the given-source critique. Treat it as a claim-scope limit: resolve or explicitly accept these gaps before broader publication-strength claims: Private Brumaire correspondence among Sieyes, Bonaparte, Lucien, Murat, Roederer, Talleyrand, and allied intermediaries.

Source Material Available to Review

The corpus-conditional critique below uses this accepted source material and the source coverage table. Known gaps are claim-scope caveats, not automatic failures of the analysis given these sources.

Case	18 Brumaire
Focal Window	1799-10 to 1799-12
Outcome	Napoleon Bonaparte's 18 Brumaire coup and the creation of the Consulate
Sources	7 source(s); groups: Bonaparte public justification, constitutional design, critical historiography, narrative secondary account, official legal transition documents, private-secretary memoir, scholarly archival analysis with transcribed primary excerpts; kinds: historiography, memoir, primary constitutional text, primary legal text, primary proclamation, scholarly archival analysis, secondary narrative
Known Gaps	2 total; high priority: Private Brumaire correspondence among Sieyes, Bonaparte, Lucien, Murat, Roederer, Talleyrand, and allied intermediaries; unresolved high priority: 1
Pre-specified Tests	3
Packet Limitations	The packet is curated from public online sources and now includes private-secretary memoir evidence plus a scholarly transcription of archival excerpts, but it still does not include an inspected direct archival original of private correspondence among the named conspirators.; Several source groups are reprints or secondary accounts, so source-lineage dependence must be audited before treating corroboration as independent.
Packet Path	docs/source_packets/18_BRUMAIRE_SOURCE_PACKET.json

Interpretation rule: the packet governs source scope, observability, and missing-source claims. Packet metadata is not itself evidence; evidence still must appear in the input text and likelihood matrix.

Source Gap Dispositions

Dispositions distinguish acquired evidence, partial mitigation, unresolved source classes, unavailable sources, and explicitly accepted limits. Partial mitigation does not clear publication-strength claim-scope caps.

Source Gap	Status	Relevant Sources	Claim Implications	Reason
Private Brumaire correspondence among Sieyes, Bonaparte, Lucien, Murat, Roederer, Talleyrand, and allied intermediaries	partially_mitigated	source_f_bourrienne_memoirs, source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer	Bourrienne and Source G improve observability of private planning, brokerage, and bargaining. Source G is a scholarly transmission with excerpts rather than an inspected archival original, and its month-level dating does not identify the decisive pre-coup sequence. Publication-strength claims about intent, sequencing, and conversion to personal rule stay capped.	The memoir remains retrospective. Source G admits the located Roederer-to-Sieyes excerpt under its actual scholarly transmission and month-level date, not as a complete digitized original. Live held-out evaluation found useful but highly dependent brokerage traces and no surviving moderate discriminator, so the direct-correspondence gap remains open.

Source Transport

This run used the native plain-text input path; no producer-owned segmentation contract is stored.

Packet Source Coverage

Coverage is matched from exact packet text markers in the input text and extracted evidence quotes. It is provenance plumbing, not a semantic judgment about evidentiary quality.

Source ID	Title	Status	Input Marker Hits	Evidence Count	Evidence IDs
`source_a_bonaparte_justification`	Brumaire: Bonaparte's Justification	covered	5	3	c03_evi_bonaparte_self_justification, c03_evi_elders_authorized_forces_claim, c03_evi_assassins_claim
`source_b_decree_proclamation`	Brumaire Decree and Proclamation of the Consuls	covered	5	6	c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls, c03_evi_legislative_adjournment, c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions, c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language, c03_evi_year_iii_failed, c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise
`source_c_constitution_year_viii`	Constitution of the Year VIII	covered	11	10	c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists, c03_evi_senate_selection_power, c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction, c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits, c03_evi_first_consul_named, c03_evi_first_consul_appointments, c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices, c03_evi_government_security_control
`source_d_fondation_napoleon`	Eymeric Job, 18 Brumaire: the context and course of a coup d'Etat	covered	32	30	c01_evi_directory_institutional_design, c01_evi_directory_middle_way, c01_evi_directory_early_stresses, c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection, c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy, c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige, c01_evi_eastern_campaign_failures, c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis
`source_e_crook_h_france`	Malcolm Crook, The Myth of the 18th Brumaire	covered	13	15	c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day, c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure, c03_evi_heroic_image_contradicted, c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops, c04_evi_directory_republican_features, c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed, c04_evi_bonaparte_helped_create_crisis, c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes
`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs`	Louis Antoine Fauvelet de Bourrienne, Memoirs of Napoleon Bonaparte, Volume 3	covered	11	11	c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan, c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim, c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation, c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes, c02_evi_conspiracy_roles, c02_evi_fouche_delay_warning, c02_evi_barras_deception, c02_evi_prepositioned_generals
`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer`	Soulef Ayad-Bergounioux, De Brumaire a la formation de l'Etat bureaucratique consulaire	covered	6	7	c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage, c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining, c02_evi_sieyes_office_bargaining, c02_evi_coalition_mistrust, c04_evi_private_correspondence_gap, c04_evi_missing_decisive_records, c04_evi_source_g_bounded_brokerage

Assigned evidence: 82/82; unassigned evidence sample: None

Recommendations by Pipeline Output

Output	Corpus-conditional critique	How to improve
Extraction and provenance	82 evidence items extracted; 69 currently have no displayed graph edge.	Classify every evidence item as mechanism trace, background condition, context, discarded, or pending-test evidence; preserve source quote and date confidence.
Hypothesis space	Leading hypothesis is not flagged as broad or absorptive; rival mechanisms are visibly separated.	Split broad hypotheses when flagged; otherwise preserve pairwise discriminators and keep overlap visible in synthesis.
Diagnostic tests	Diagnostic strength: 0 decisive, 2 moderate across 2 dependence-distinct units, 24 weak, 56 near-neutral items.	Pre-register hoop and smoking-gun tests before likelihood scoring; seek direct traces unlikely under rival hypotheses when decisive counts are low.
Temporal process sequence	Year-level buckets: 0 background, 5 intermediate, 76 proximate, 1 downstream, and 0 unknown; background top drivers: 0.	Construct and preserve a dated mechanism sequence for the final decision window; distinguish enabling background from proximate causal action.
Bayesian update and dependence	Top hypothesis h2 has comparative support 40% with robustness fragile.	Treat high-support fragile results as rankings, not calibrated truth probabilities; audit dependence clusters and rerun sensitivity after adding stronger traces.
Absence, counterfactuals, and scope	0 damaging absence finding(s); source scope determines whether absence is meaningful.	Specify the archive or source genre where the missing trace should appear; add counterfactual evidence on failed alternatives and non-events.
Synthesis and claims	0 verdict calibration issue(s) detected.	Phrase conclusions as exploratory under the present corpus; separate mechanism plausibility from publication-strength causal identification.

Evidence Triage

Class	Count	Examples	Next action
Excluded from update	0	None	Retain for provenance; do not count again in the likelihood update.
Top driver	4	c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage: Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sieyes and Bonaparte be; c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan: Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to selected assistants ; c03_evi_bonaparte_self_justification: Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed Constitution had led	Audit exact anchoring, temporal proximity, dependence, and bearing on the named rival contrast before treating this accepted-corpus item as mechanism evidence.
Displayed discriminator	8	c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act: Bonaparte's command of the 17th Division, nominally protective, gave him operati; c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized: Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin while effectively neutr; c02_evi_coercive_perimeter: Bonaparte's military allies occupied ministries, legislative sites, bridges, and	Check whether the signal is independent or shares a source/mechanism with other items.
Background weak signal	0	None	Keep as enabling context unless paired with proximate mechanism traces.
Zero relevance	1	c04_evi_private_correspondence_gap: The packet remains unable to directly observe private correspondence among the p	Neutral by construction; revise relevance only with a source-grounded justification.
Near-neutral	20	c01_evi_directory_institutional_design: Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executive with two councils; c01_evi_directory_middle_way: Source D characterizes the Directory as a middle-way regime between monarchy and; c01_evi_directory_early_stresses: Source D lists several political and factional crises that placed early stress o	Move to inventory/context unless a new hypothesis makes it discriminating.
Tested weak signal	49	c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection: Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing a royalist insurrection, makin; c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy: The Directory appointed Bonaparte commander of the Army of Italy, after which hi; c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige: Bonaparte's victories and negotiations in Italy produced exceptional military pr	Retain as tested inventory; seek a sharper pre-specified discriminator before relying on it.
Not tested	0	None	Repair test coverage before interpreting the result.

Recommended Next Steps

No required report/model iteration remains for the accepted-source critique. The following items can improve evidentiary resolution without changing the recorded contract-coverage result.

Evidence Development

These needs describe what additional evidence could clarify the process trace. They block a confident claim only when the synthesis currently makes one; an explicitly indeterminate conclusion may still be methodologically optimal given the accepted corpus.

no decisive accepted-corpus process trace

When Extending Beyond These Sources

Keep the current conclusions explicitly conditional on the accepted source set.
Acquire, add, or explicitly disposition the high-priority source gaps before claims that exceed the current corpus.
After source changes, rerun extraction through audit rather than treating packet metadata as evidence.

Temporal Causal Timeline

Extracted events and evidence are ordered by date before the network view. Temporal order is necessary for causal interpretation but is not sufficient by itself; use this with the diagnostic matrix and evidence links.

Date	Type	Item	Causal/Bayesian signal
5 October 1795	Empirical	`c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection` Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing a royalist insurrection, making him an available military solution for civilian politicians.	opposes h3 LR 0.90
1795	Empirical	`c01_evi_directory_institutional_design` Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executive with two councils to avoid both one-man tyranny and uncontrolled democratic radicalism. top driver h1 top driver h2	neutral LR 1.00
1795	Interpretive	`c01_evi_directory_middle_way` Source D characterizes the Directory as a middle-way regime between monarchy and demagogy rather than a purely military government.	neutral LR 1.00
1795-1799	Empirical	`c04_evi_directory_republican_features` Crook reports that the Directory retained a male taxpaying franchise of about five million, departmental electoral colleges, annual legislative contests, and some press freedom.	supports h3 LR 1.25
1795-1797	Event	`evt_bonaparte_military_prestige` Bonaparte suppressed insurrection and gained military prestige through the Italian command and victories.	out: created military prestige and elite influence
1795	Event	`evt_directory_created` The Directory replaced the Thermidorian Convention with a five-member executive and two councils.	in: created the Directory's institutional regime
1795-1797	Event	`evt_directory_stresses` Political, factional, and military crises placed cumulative stress on the Directory.	out: generated cumulative regime instability
2 March 1796	Empirical	`c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy` The Directory appointed Bonaparte commander of the Army of Italy, after which his victories increased his influence among elites.	supports h2 LR 1.12
1796-1797	Interpretive	`c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige` Bonaparte's victories and negotiations in Italy produced exceptional military prestige before Brumaire.	supports h2 LR 1.15
1795-1797	Empirical	`c01_evi_directory_early_stresses` Source D lists several political and factional crises that placed early stress on the Directory.	supports h3 LR 1.06
1798-1799	Event	`evt_bonaparte_eastern_failures` The Egyptian and Syrian campaign produced major military and logistical failures.	no extracted causal edge
23 August 1799	Interpretive	`c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis` Bonaparte returned from Egypt with trusted men and generals while the Directory faced political and military crisis.	opposes h1 LR 0.91
1799 before Brumaire	Interpretive	`c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument` Sieyes viewed Bonaparte as dangerous and ambitious and hesitated to include him, while other military alternatives were weak, reluctant, or dead.	supports h1 LR 1.39
1-2 August 1798 and 1799	Interpretive	`c01_evi_eastern_campaign_failures` Bonaparte's Egyptian and Syrian campaign included major naval, political, medical, and operational failures, complicating a simple hero narrative.	supports h3 LR 1.06
8 October 1799	Empirical	`c01_evi_frejus_popularity_and_crisis` Bonaparte's arrival at Frejus generated public acclaim while France faced renewed war and the Second Coalition.	opposes h1 LR 0.90
1799 before Brumaire	Empirical	`c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations` Negotiations between Sieyes and Bonaparte began in mutual distrust, while Talleyrand and Roederer received concrete parts of the plan.	supports h1 LR 1.26
1799 before Brumaire	Empirical	`c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support` Sieyes had support from financial-sector figures Perier and Perregaux before Brumaire.	supports h1 LR 1.25
1799 before Brumaire	Interpretive	`c01_evi_sieyes_needed_military_force` Sieyes sought a military backer because he wanted a coup but needed force to support it.	supports h1 LR 1.36
May 1799	Empirical	`c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive` After becoming a director, Sieyes sought constitutional change toward a stronger executive.	supports h1 LR 1.26
17 Brumaire Year VIII	Empirical	`c02_evi_barras_deception` Bourrienne deceived Barras by using Bonaparte's name to explain his absence, leading Barras to think Bonaparte had settled everything.	opposes h3 LR 0.78
25 Vendemiaire Year VIII, or 17 October 1799	Empirical	`c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes` Bonaparte reportedly chose Sieyes's party because Sieyes lacked political ambition while Barras would not accept an inferior role.	supports h1 LR 1.21
18 Brumaire, around 10 a.m.	Empirical	`c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense` Bonaparte defended his vision of the Republic before the Ancients but did not defend the existing Constitution.	opposes h1 LR 0.81
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_bonaparte_poorly_received` Bonaparte was poorly received and challenged after speaking incoherently about the Constitution.	opposes h1 LR 0.71
1799 before Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan` Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to selected assistants while others followed the impulse given to them. top driver h2 top driver h3	supports h2 LR 1.32
1799 before Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim` The memoir says Bonaparte abandoned the idea of becoming a Director and turned toward possessing the whole office after the age rule impeded that path.	supports h2 LR 1.41
Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	Empirical	`c02_evi_coalition_mistrust` Boulay recalls that Sieyes believed he was turning toward Bonaparte, while Boulay immediately denied the accusation.	neutral LR 1.00
18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_coercive_perimeter` Bonaparte's military allies occupied ministries, legislative sites, bridges, and routes across Paris.	supports h2 LR 1.51
18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act` Bonaparte's command of the 17th Division, nominally protective, gave him operational freedom.	supports h2 LR 1.51
Days before 18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_conspiracy_roles` The conspiracy distributed distinct roles across the Councils, Directory, departments, and police network.	supports h1 LR 1.48
Weeks before 18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment` Conspirators met at Bonaparte's apartment and selected 18 Brumaire as the coup date.	opposes h3 LR 0.74
18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body` Talleyrand secured Barras's resignation, leaving the Directory without its executive body.	supports h3 LR 1.15
18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized` Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin while effectively neutralizing opposition within the Directory.	supports h2 LR 1.51
Morning of 18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_false_majority_ancients` The Council of Ancients' decree was reportedly secured through staggered notices that prevented some members from arriving in time.	supports h3 LR 1.09
14 Brumaire Year VIII	Empirical	`c02_evi_fouche_delay_warning` Fouche warned that postponement would jeopardize the conspiracy.	supports h1 LR 1.30
19 Brumaire, early session	Empirical	`c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows` A significant Jacobin presence surprised plotters, and deputies renewed their vows to the Constitution of Year III.	supports h3 LR 1.52
18 Brumaire, 7 a.m.	Empirical	`c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation` A rumor of a Jacobin plot helped secure the decree relocating the assemblies to Saint-Cloud.	supports h3 LR 1.30
17 Brumaire Year VIII	Empirical	`c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly` Bonaparte summoned Lefebvre and loyal officers to assemble armed and uniformed before the official transfer.	supports h2 LR 1.47
1799 before Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation` The memoir attributes cooperation between Sieyes and Bonaparte to mediators converting their mutual animosity against a disliked constitution.	supports h1 LR 1.20
Morning of 18 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_prepositioned_generals` Generals and officers loyal to Bonaparte assembled in uniform before the formal transfer to Saint-Cloud, although Bernadotte refused to follow without orders.	supports h2 LR 1.44
18 Brumaire, evening	Empirical	`c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary` Despite military and executive maneuvers, conspirators still needed legislative votes for a new constitution.	supports h1 LR 1.21
Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	Empirical	`c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage` Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sieyes and Bonaparte because surveillance prevented private meetings. top driver h1 top driver h3	supports h1 LR 1.34
Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	Empirical	`c02_evi_sieyes_office_bargaining` A billet records that Sieyes was urged not to abandon a group after an office had already been conferred, in the context of an executive-power dispute.	opposes h3 LR 0.88
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day` The second day became crucial because the conspirators no longer had surprise and many members suspected a trap.	opposes h1 LR 0.72
Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	Empirical	`c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining` Roederer attributes coordination of conduct to Talleyrand and negotiation of political conditions to himself.	supports h1 LR 1.28
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance` Source D reports that Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed grenadiers and provoked accusations of dictatorship and tyranny.	opposes h1 LR 0.61
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_assassins_claim` Bonaparte claimed alleged assassins threatened deputies and forced guards to clear Saint-Cloud.	opposes h1 LR 0.87
19 Brumaire, late night	Empirical	`c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation` Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte dictated a proclamation immediately after the forceful expulsion to shape next-morning discussion.	supports h2 LR 1.24
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure` Source E reports that Bonaparte faced growing resistance and nearly fainted during the confrontation.	supports h3 LR 1.22
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_bonaparte_self_justification` Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed Constitution had led all parties to seek his support. top driver h1	supports h3 LR 1.16
19 Brumaire, evening	Empirical	`c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission` Chazal proposed endorsing the two days' events, abolishing the Directory, and creating a commission including Sieyes, Ducos, and Bonaparte.	opposes h2 LR 0.94
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language` The decree described constitutional changes as consolidating sovereignty, representation, liberty, equality, security, and property.	opposes h2 LR 0.94
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls` The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named Sieyes, Roger-Ducos, and Bonaparte as Consuls, and vested them with executive authority.	supports h2 LR 1.16
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_elders_authorized_forces_claim` Bonaparte claimed the Council of Elders summoned him and gave him control of forces to secure legislative independence.	supports h2 LR 1.10
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction` Retiring Consuls Sieyes and Roger-Ducos entered the Senate and helped appoint most of its members with the other Consuls.	opposes h3 LR 0.86
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists` The Constitution created successive citizenship lists through which public offices were selected, preserving voting language while filtering selection through higher institutions. top driver h2 top driver h3	opposes h3 LR 0.78
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_first_consul_appointments` The First Consul promulgated laws and controlled appointments and dismissals across ministers, officials, officers, administrators, and commissioners.	supports h2 LR 1.39
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices` After the Second and Third Consuls recorded opinions, the First Consul's decision alone sufficed.	supports h2 LR 1.43
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_first_consul_named` The Constitution named Bonaparte First Consul and gave him special duties and prerogatives.	supports h2 LR 1.31
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_government_security_control` The government proposed laws and controlled internal security, external defense, armed forces, and foreign relations.	supports h2 LR 1.21
19 Brumaire and later interpretation	Interpretive	`c03_evi_heroic_image_contradicted` Source E presents the chamber crisis as contradicting later heroic portrayals of a controlled coup.	supports h3 LR 1.09
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence` Bourrienne reports that, after Lucien's legitimation performance, Bonaparte signaled Murat and grenadiers to drive out the representatives.	supports h2 LR 1.52
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_legal_emergency_channel` The Constitution authorized suspension of constitutional authority during armed rebellion or threats to state security.	supports h2 LR 1.10
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_legislative_adjournment` The decree adjourned the legislative body until 20 February 1800 while the commission exercised directorial power.	opposes h1 LR 0.74
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits` The Tribunate could discuss laws, but the Legislative Body voted secretly without discussion and the government could withdraw or modify proposals.	opposes h3 LR 0.84
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops` Lucien called on troops to defend Bonaparte and thereby enabled military intervention.	supports h2 LR 1.51
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame` Lucien declared he would resist his brother if Napoleon violated French liberty, framing intervention as defensive.	supports h2 LR 1.28
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_military_subordination_rule` The Constitution declared the public force obedient and prohibited armed bodies from deliberating.	supports h2 LR 1.05
19 Brumaire	Empirical	`c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies` Murat announced the dissolution of the deputies, who panicked and partly fled before freely completing the process.	supports h2 LR 1.55
10 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions` Each council was to appoint a twenty-five-member commission to handle urgent police, legislative, and financial matters.	opposes h3 LR 0.94
12 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise` The proclamation blamed ambitious factions and promised a republic founded on equality, liberty, and representation.	opposes h2 LR 0.90
19 Brumaire, evening	Empirical	`c03_evi_roundup_and_commission` Several hundred deputies were rounded up before a session endorsed the events, abolished the Directory, and proposed an executive commission.	supports h2 LR 1.41
December 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_senate_selection_power` The eighty-member Conservative Senate selected legislators, tribunes, consuls, judges, and commissioners from the national list in private sittings.	opposes h3 LR 0.75
12 November 1799	Empirical	`c03_evi_year_iii_failed` The Consuls' proclamation attributed the death of the Constitution of Year III to its inability to protect rights or sustain itself.	supports h3 LR 1.25
1799	Interpretive	`c04_evi_bonaparte_helped_create_crisis` Crook attributes the 1799 military reverses partly to Bonaparte's adventurism in the Middle East.	supports h2 LR 1.15
1799-1802	Empirical	`c04_evi_consulate_initially_insecure` The new order was initially insecure, facing divergent reactions, apathy, and disappointing plebiscite returns.	opposes h1 LR 0.94
19 Brumaire and after	Interpretive	`c04_evi_coup_within_coup` Crook argues that Bonaparte subsequently reshaped the new constitution in a more personalist direction, producing a coup within the original coup.	supports h2 LR 1.41
1799 before Brumaire	Interpretive	`c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes` Many recently elected deputies viewed constitutional revision as an alternative to Jacobin terror or royalist restoration.	opposes h2 LR 0.94
1799-1802	Interpretive	`c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns` Crook reports that Lucien Bonaparte effectively doubled disappointing constitutional plebiscite returns.	opposes h1 LR 0.97
19 Brumaire and after	Interpretive	`c04_evi_military_force_strengthened_bonaparte` The use of military force during Brumaire strengthened Bonaparte's hand.	supports h2 LR 1.30
1799 and later interpretation	Empirical	`c04_evi_missing_decisive_records` Publication-ready analysis would need correspondence, council records, military orders, police reports, local press, departmental responses, and raw plebiscite returns.	neutral LR 1.00
1799 and later interpretation	Empirical	`c04_evi_private_correspondence_gap` The packet remains unable to directly observe private correspondence among the principal conspirators.	neutral LR 1.00
1799 before Brumaire	Empirical	`c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan` Sieyes initially planned voluntary transfer of power to a revisionary commission and intended Bonaparte's role to remain subordinate.	supports h1 LR 1.38
1799 and later interpretation	Interpretive	`c04_evi_source_g_bounded_brokerage` Source G narrows the archival route and adds bounded brokerage evidence but does not close the direct-correspondence gap.	neutral LR 1.00
Year VII	Empirical	`c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed` The Year VII elections were endorsed rather than overturned, challenging an inevitable-collapse interpretation.	supports h3 LR 1.27
December 1799	Interpretive	`c04_evi_year_viii_reduced_rights_language` Crook says the Constitution of Year VIII dropped the Declaration of Rights and made references to liberty and equality increasingly perfunctory.	supports h2 LR 1.26
25 Vendemiaire Year VIII, or 17 October 1799	Event	`evt_bonaparte_chooses_sieyes` Bonaparte chose Sieyes’s coalition over Barras’s.	in: enabled coalition selection; in: selected Sieyes's coalition over Barras's; out: preceded coordinated conspiratorial role allocation
8 October 1799	Event	`evt_bonaparte_landing` Bonaparte landed at Frejus amid public acclaim and renewed war with the Second Coalition.	out: combined public acclaim with crisis-era availability
1799 before Brumaire	Event	`evt_bonaparte_recruited` Sieyes recruited Bonaparte as a risky military instrument after alternatives proved weak, reluctant, or unavailable.	in: created demand for military backing; in: recruited Bonaparte as a military instrument; out: embodied recruitment despite distrust and limited alternatives
23 August 1799	Event	`evt_bonaparte_return` Bonaparte returned from Egypt during France’s political and military crisis.	no extracted causal edge
10 November 1799	Event	`evt_brumair_decree` The Brumaire Decree named three Consuls, vested them with executive authority, and adjourned the legislature.	in: translated emergency authority into a formal decree; out: preceded the proclamation's republican restoration frame; out: created the institutional transition leading to Year VIII
12 November 1799	Event	`evt_republican_proclamation` The Consuls’ proclamation presented constitutional replacement as restoration of republican rights and order.	in: preceded the proclamation's republican restoration frame; out: presented replacement as republican repair
May 1799 and before Brumaire	Event	`evt_sieyes_revision_plan` Sieyes became director and pursued stronger executive authority and voluntary constitutional revision.	in: pursued stronger executive authority and revision; out: activated a civilian constitutional-revision project; in: made constitutional revision politically urgent
December 1799	Event	`evt_year_viii_constitution` The Constitution of Year VIII established filtered representation and a dominant First Consul.	in: created the institutional transition leading to Year VIII; in: redirected constitutional revision toward personalist rule; out: filtered political selection through lists and elite institutions; out: provided the institutional basis for the new order's legitimacy
1800-1801	Interpretive	`c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup` Broader popularity emerged later through Marengo, repression against lawlessness, and reconciliation with the Catholic Church through the Concordat of 1801.	opposes h1 LR 0.95
1800-1801	Event	`evt_postcoup_legitimacy` Consular legitimacy developed through military success, repression of lawlessness, religious reconciliation, and plebiscitary validation.	in: provided the institutional basis for the new order's legitimacy; in: contributed to later religious reconciliation; in: consolidated legitimacy through victories, repression, reconciliation, and validation
18 Brumaire, 7 a.m.	Event	`evt_ancients_relocation` The Council of Ancients relocated the assemblies to Saint-Cloud after a Jacobin-plot rumor.	in: justified relocation of the assemblies; in: authorized relocation to Saint-Cloud; out: created the formal setting for military command
17 Brumaire Year VIII	Event	`evt_barras_deceived` Bourrienne deceived Barras about Bonaparte’s absence and intentions.	in: enabled concealment of Bonaparte's intentions
18 Brumaire, by evening	Event	`evt_barras_resigns` Talleyrand secured Barras’s resignation, leaving the Directory without its executive body.	in: secured Barras's resignation; out: deprived the Directory of its executive body
19 Brumaire	Event	`evt_bonaparte_chamber_entry` Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed grenadiers and faced resistance.	in: secured access to the legislative chamber; in: prompted armed intervention in the chamber; in: entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed troops; out: converted legislative resistance into armed confrontation
18 Brumaire	Event	`evt_bonaparte_command` Bonaparte received command of the 17th Division, giving him operational freedom.	in: created the formal setting for military command; in: gave Bonaparte command of the 17th Division; out: gave Bonaparte operational freedom to position troops
Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	Event	`evt_brokerage_negotiations` Talleyrand and Roederer mediated negotiations and political conditions between Sieyes and Bonaparte.	in: mediated cooperation between Sieyes and Bonaparte; in: negotiated the political conditions of cooperation; out: linked the civilian and military coalition
Days before 18 Brumaire	Event	`evt_conspiracy_roles_distributed` Conspirators distributed legislative, executive, departmental, police, and military roles.	in: preceded coordinated conspiratorial role allocation; out: organized selective and compartmentalized action
Weeks before 18 Brumaire	Event	`evt_coup_date_set` Conspirators met at Bonaparte’s apartment and set the coup for 18 Brumaire.	in: hosted the meeting that set the coup date; out: triggered pre-coup military assembly
19 Brumaire, evening	Event	`evt_directory_abolished` A reduced legislative session abolished the Directory and created an executive commission.	in: facilitated abolition of the Directory; in: made reduced-session legalization possible; in: proposed abolishing the Directory and creating an executive commission; out: initiated formal conversion of the coup into law
18 Brumaire	Event	`evt_directory_neutralized` Sieyes and Ducos resigned while Moreau’s troops contained Gohier and Moulin.	in: contained Gohier and Moulin; in: helped neutralize executive opposition; out: removed effective internal executive resistance
19 Brumaire, early session	Event	`evt_legislative_resistance` Deputies recognized the trap and renewed their vows to the Constitution of Year III.	out: blocked the planned voluntary transition
19 Brumaire	Event	`evt_legislature_expelled` Murat and grenadiers expelled representatives from the assembly.	in: enabled troops to intervene against deputies; in: directed the expulsion of representatives; in: cleared the assembly by force; out: prevented free legislative completion of the transition; out: made reduced-session legalization possible; out: strengthened Bonaparte's position through military force
19 Brumaire	Event	`evt_lucien_legitimates_intervention` Lucien framed military intervention as defense of French liberty.	in: called troops to defend Bonaparte and liberty; out: framed coercive intervention as defense of liberty
17 Brumaire Year VIII	Event	`evt_military_mobilized` Lefebvre and loyal officers assembled armed and uniformed before the coup.	in: triggered pre-coup military assembly; in: summoned loyal officers and generals
18 Brumaire	Event	`evt_military_perimeter` Bonaparte’s allies occupied strategic ministries, bridges, legislative sites, and routes.	in: gave Bonaparte operational freedom to position troops; out: helped neutralize executive opposition; out: secured access to the legislative chamber

Hypothesis Partition Audit Adequate

The strongest concern is that civilian planning, military coercion, and institutional breakdown could coexist historically, but the hypotheses make opposed predictions about causal control and sequence. No winner can absorb every rival without abandoning its claims about the decisive bottleneck. The research question and Brumaire-centered focal window are sufficiently tight for discrimination.

Research question: Adequate

Rival Pair Assessment

Pair	Concerns	Contrasts	Accepted prediction lineage
`h1` ↔ `h2`	None	2	`pred_h1_01` ↔ `pred_h2_01` sequence H1 predicts civilian planning before military action; H2 predicts Napoleon's coercive action precedes and determines the legislative break. `pred_h1_02` ↔ `pred_h2_02` control H1 predicts the constitution follows civilian designs; H2 predicts Napoleon expands executive powers beyond those designs.
`h1` ↔ `h3`	None	2	`pred_h1_01` ↔ `pred_h3_02` timing H1 predicts a pre-existing civilian constitutional plan; H3 predicts decisive divergence only during the Brumaire sequence. `pred_h1_02` ↔ `pred_h3_03` necessity H1 makes prior civilian design causally central; H3 makes institutional closure, rather than prior planning, the stronger predictor.
`h2` ↔ `h3`	None	2	`pred_h2_01` ↔ `pred_h3_02` sequence H2 predicts Napoleon's orders and intimidation drive the break; H3 predicts failed procedures and emergency ruptures generate the decisive divergence. `pred_h2_03` ↔ `pred_h3_03` mechanism H2 centers coup-timed coercive escalation; H3 centers institutional path closure as the stronger causal determinant.

Audit and Repair Lineage

Each row freezes the exact candidate rival set that the auditor evaluated. A repair has no authority until a later row accepts its replacement.

Attempt	Transition	Candidate hypothesis IDs	Decision	Blockers
1	initial_audit	h1, h2, h3	accepted	none

Overlap: both hypotheses predict the same evidence patterns (can’t discriminate). Complementary: decisive claims may both be true; this blocks only without an opposed prediction. Absorptive: one decisive claim may absorb another unchanged; shared background factors alone are not fatal. Discriminators: predictions where H_i expects X but H_j expects NOT-X (≥3 strongly preferred per pair).

Independent Discriminator Audit Accepted

Rejected rows were conservatively compressed below 2x; all surviving candidates were unchanged and accepted in the immediately preceding independent audit.

Candidate	Exact corpus quote	Rival contrast	Independent judgment	Required repair
`disc_001` c02_evi_conspiracy_roles source_f_bourrienne_memoirs / span_c02_007	“Days before 18 Brumaire: Source F says the roles in the conspiracy were distributed: Lucien worked the two Councils, Sieyes managed the Directory, Real worked under Fouche's instructions in the departments, and Fouche warned on 14 Brumaire that delay would ruin the plot. This provides source-specific evidence for a coordinated civilian-police-legislative-military conspiracy.”	`h1` ↔ `h3` Favored: h1 (2.20x) `pred_h1_01` ↔ `pred_h3_02` (timing) `pred_h1_02` ↔ `pred_h3_03` (necessity)	Accepted Carried forward unchanged after deterministic enforcement of other rejected rows. Prior audit: The pre-Brumaire distribution of roles across civilian institutions and the police network is a direct trace of organized prior coordination, more expected under h1 than under h3's account of crisis-generated closure.	not required
`disc_002` c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows source_d_fondation_napoleon / span_c02_021	“19 Brumaire, early session: Source D says a significant Jacobin presence surprised the plotters. The session began late, increasing tension. Debrel insisted that deputies renew their vows to the Constitution of Year III, and they did so.”	`h1` ↔ `h3` Favored: h3 (2.30x) `pred_h1_01` ↔ `pred_h3_02` (timing) `pred_h1_02` ↔ `pred_h3_03` (necessity)	Accepted Carried forward unchanged after deterministic enforcement of other rejected rows. Prior audit: The deputies' renewed constitutional vows immediately before the rupture directly show an active republican procedural alternative at the crisis stage, supporting h3's timing prediction over h1's prior-design emphasis.	not required
`disc_003` c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance source_d_fondation_napoleon / span_c03_001	“19 Brumaire: Source D says Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed grenadiers, provoking cries against dictatorship, unlawful action, and tyranny. The same source says Murat, Leclerc, and grenadiers prevented further deterioration.”	`h1` ↔ `h2` Favored: h2 (2.40x) `pred_h1_01` ↔ `pred_h2_01` (sequence) `pred_h1_02` ↔ `pred_h2_02` (control)	Accepted Carried forward unchanged after deterministic enforcement of other rejected rows. Prior audit: The armed entry into the Five Hundred, accusations of dictatorship, and troop intervention directly trace coercive legislative intimidation at the decisive break, favoring h2 over voluntary or civilian-led revision under h1.	not required

Audit and Re-elicitation Lineage

Attempt	Transition	Testing hash	Reviewer model	Decision counts	Summary
1	initial_semantic_audit	fb7add0fd842…	codex/gpt-5.6-luna	7 accepted / 11 rejected	The strongest valid discriminators concern pre-crisis distributed civilian planning and the directly observed coercive legislative rupture. Several preparation, resistance, and coercion traces are shared by the rival mechanisms and should not be treated as discriminators without a more specific causal link.
2	terminal_rejection_enforcement	105a2cd27b1e…	codex/gpt-5.6-luna	3 accepted / 0 rejected	Rejected rows were conservatively compressed below 2x; all surviving candidates were unchanged and accepted in the immediately preceding independent audit.

Inference Provenance

Inference design theory_first confirmatory_eligible_theory_first

Design rationale: Rivals and predictions are formulated from the declared theory material before extracted corpus evidence is exposed.
Pass 2 evidence exposure: 0 item(s)
Visible source IDs: none
Post-selection exposure: none

The status is derived from actual system-recorded exposure. It is not a model self-report and does not establish historical truth.

Prior method: uniform
Rationale: Equal prior weights; no corpus evidence or external source informed the prior.
Inputs: none

Hypothesis formulation

Hypothesis	Origin	Why included	System-recorded exposure
h1	generated	Generated from the elite-coordination and constitutional-revision framework as a rival to military-personalist and crisis-contingency explanations.	Theory/contrast only
h2	generated	Generated from the personalist military takeover framework and the requirement to test an explicit named-decision-maker explanation.	Theory/contrast only
h3	generated	Generated from contingent institutional path-closure theory as a rival emphasizing sequence and irreversible crisis effects.	Theory/contrast only

Evidence excluded from updating

Evidence	Reason	Related hypotheses	Enforced treatment
No corpus evidence was used for hypothesis generation or prior construction.

Claim, Event, Source, and Author Dependence

claim81.00 → 79.08
2 pooled group(s)

event79.08 → 36.29
10 pooled group(s)

source36.29 → 7.38
7 pooled group(s)

author7.38 → 7.38
0 pooled group(s)

Counts are pooled in order: repeated claims within events, events within sources, sources within authors. A later level cannot restore independence removed earlier.

Level	Group	Dependence	Evidence IDs	Lineage rationale
claim	`claim_d_crisis_endorsement`	0.94	`c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	Both statements atomize the same Source D account of the evening endorsement and creation of an executive commission.
claim	`claim_f_bonaparte_personal_plan`	0.90	`c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim`	Both are retrospective Bourrienne details about Bonaparte's concealed intention to replace the directorial office with personal rule.
event	`event_d_sieyes_military_recruitment`	0.82	`c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive`, `c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support`, `c01_evi_sieyes_needed_military_force`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument`, `c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations`	Source D narrates one bounded pre-Brumaire episode of Sieyes's constitutional project, support network, need for force, and negotiation with Bonaparte.
event	`event_f_preparation_and_execution`	0.78	`c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim`, `c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes`, `c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`, `c02_evi_fouche_delay_warning`	Bourrienne's memoir presents these as linked details of pre-coup coalition formation and operational preparation.
event	`event_f_first_day_operations`	0.84	`c02_evi_barras_deception`, `c02_evi_prepositioned_generals`, `c02_evi_false_majority_ancients`	These details belong to Bourrienne's bounded account of deception, troop preparation, and procedural manipulation on the first coup day.
event	`event_d_18_brumaire_seizure`	0.79	`c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`, `c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`, `c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`, `c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense`, `c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`, `c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`, `c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`, `c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary`	Source D organizes these details within the first-day transfer of legislative and executive power under military protection.
event	`event_e_19_brumaire_confrontation`	0.86	`c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`, `c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure`, `c03_evi_heroic_image_contradicted`	Source E's critical narrative links these details to one second-day chamber confrontation that disrupted the controlled-coup image.
event	`event_d_19_brumaire_expulsion`	0.87	`c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance`, `c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame`, `c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies`, `c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	Source D narrates the armed entry, justificatory intervention, expulsion, roundup, and provisional executive settlement as one crisis episode.
event	`event_b_legal_transition`	0.92	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_legislative_adjournment`, `c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions`, `c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language`, `c03_evi_year_iii_failed`, `c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`	Source B records these provisions in one official legal transition from the Directory to the Consular commission.
event	`event_c_year_viii_design`	0.97	`c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists`, `c03_evi_senate_selection_power`, `c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction`, `c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`, `c03_evi_first_consul_appointments`, `c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices`, `c03_evi_government_security_control`, `c03_evi_military_subordination_rule`, `c03_evi_legal_emergency_channel`	The Constitution of Year VIII is one bounded institutional-design document producing these linked provisions.
event	`event_e_post_coup_personalization`	0.80	`c04_evi_military_force_strengthened_bonaparte`, `c04_evi_coup_within_coup`, `c04_evi_year_viii_reduced_rights_language`	Crook's interpretation treats these as connected features of post-Brumaire constitutional personalization.
event	`event_g_brokerage_and_source_limits`	0.90	`c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage`, `c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining`, `c02_evi_sieyes_office_bargaining`, `c02_evi_coalition_mistrust`, `c04_evi_private_correspondence_gap`, `c04_evi_missing_decisive_records`, `c04_evi_source_g_bounded_brokerage`	Source G's scholarly article supplies one transmission chain for brokerage findings and its stated archival limitations.
source	`source_source_d_fondation_napoleon`	0.90	`c01_evi_directory_institutional_design`, `c01_evi_directory_middle_way`, `c01_evi_directory_early_stresses`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige`, `c01_evi_eastern_campaign_failures`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis`, `c01_evi_frejus_popularity_and_crisis`, `c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive`, `c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support`, `c01_evi_sieyes_needed_military_force`, `c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument`, `c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations`, `c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`, `c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`, `c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`, `c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense`, `c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`, `c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`, `c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`, `c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary`, `c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_poorly_received`, `c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance`, `c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame`, `c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies`, `c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`, `c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.
source	`source_source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer`	0.90	`c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage`, `c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining`, `c02_evi_sieyes_office_bargaining`, `c02_evi_coalition_mistrust`, `c04_evi_private_correspondence_gap`, `c04_evi_missing_decisive_records`, `c04_evi_source_g_bounded_brokerage`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.
source	`source_source_f_bourrienne_memoirs`	0.90	`c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim`, `c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation`, `c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes`, `c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`, `c02_evi_fouche_delay_warning`, `c02_evi_barras_deception`, `c02_evi_prepositioned_generals`, `c02_evi_false_majority_ancients`, `c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence`, `c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.
source	`source_source_e_crook_h_france`	0.90	`c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`, `c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure`, `c03_evi_heroic_image_contradicted`, `c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops`, `c04_evi_directory_republican_features`, `c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed`, `c04_evi_bonaparte_helped_create_crisis`, `c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes`, `c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan`, `c04_evi_military_force_strengthened_bonaparte`, `c04_evi_coup_within_coup`, `c04_evi_year_viii_reduced_rights_language`, `c04_evi_consulate_initially_insecure`, `c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns`, `c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.
source	`source_source_b_decree_proclamation`	0.90	`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`, `c03_evi_legislative_adjournment`, `c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions`, `c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language`, `c03_evi_year_iii_failed`, `c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.
source	`source_source_a_bonaparte_justification`	0.90	`c03_evi_bonaparte_self_justification`, `c03_evi_elders_authorized_forces_claim`, `c03_evi_assassins_claim`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.
source	`source_source_c_constitution_year_viii`	0.90	`c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists`, `c03_evi_senate_selection_power`, `c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction`, `c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits`, `c03_evi_first_consul_named`, `c03_evi_first_consul_appointments`, `c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices`, `c03_evi_government_security_control`, `c03_evi_military_subordination_rule`, `c03_evi_legal_emergency_channel`	Items share one grounded source document and its recording, selection, and narrative-production process.

Hypothesis Comparison

Rank	ID	Hypothesis	Source	Prior	Support	Status	Robustness	Sensitivity
1	h2	Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and troop control into personal rule, using intimidation and elite brokers to transform a constitutional crisis into the Consulate.	generated	25%	40%	Indeterminate fresh policy-aware verdict review required	Fragile	30%–50% Stable	Details
Causal Mechanism: Napoleon positioned armed forces during the legislative crisis, dispersed or intimidated representative bodies, and relied on family and factional brokers to translate coercion into legality; the new constitution then concentrated appointment and decision powers in him. Theoretical Basis: Praetorian-conversion theory predicts that a commander with loyal troops can make personal authority, rather than civilian constitutional design, the decisive source of regime change. Steelman Case: H2 has the clearest direct sequence at the crisis point: Bonaparte’s forces were prepared, operational command gave him freedom to act, armed troops entered the chamber, and representatives were expelled. The Constitution of Year VIII then named him First Consul and gave the office broad appointment powers, while the First Consul’s decision could suffice after other opinions were recorded. A strong advocate would argue that the civilian plan became dependent on force, and that force redirected the settlement toward Bonaparte’s personal authority. The family intervention and reported signal to Murat further fit a personalist conversion of crisis into executive rule. Why included: Generated from the personalist military takeover framework and the requirement to test an explicit named-decision-maker explanation. Formulation evidence: Theory/contrast only
2	H0_residual	None of the listed explanations (other cause, or a genuinely conjunctural combination)	residual	25%	24%	Indeterminate fresh policy-aware verdict review required	Unknown	19%–29% Unstable	Details
Causal Mechanism: (residual — no specific mechanism) Theoretical Basis: Exhaustiveness: reserve mass so the listed set need not contain the truth. Steelman Case: Why included: A deterministic residual category reserved by the updater. Formulation evidence: Theory/contrast only
3	h3	Specific episodes during the 19 Brumaire crisis closed previously viable republican paths, making the Consulate the contingent result of institutional breakdown rather than the predetermined product of elite design or personal ambition.	generated	25%	18%	Indeterminate fresh policy-aware verdict review required	Fragile	12%–26% Unstable	Details
Causal Mechanism: The Directory retained electoral, press, and republican capacities until the Brumaire crisis disrupted coordination and legitimacy; the failed legislative response and coercive rupture then made parliamentary, Jacobin, and royalist alternatives less viable than the Consulate. Theoretical Basis: Path-dependence theory predicts that weak institutions can remain adaptable until a critical episode eliminates alternative trajectories and locks in a new constitutional order. Steelman Case: H3 best captures the observed timing: elections and legislative procedures remained operational, then the relocation, lost surprise, renewed constitutional vows, chamber resistance, armed entry, expulsion, and emergency commission compressed into the Brumaire sequence. The failed speech and growing resistance show that the outcome was not simply an orderly execution of a predetermined plan. A defender would argue that institutional closure, rather than prior ambition alone, made the Consulate possible. The post-coup legal settlement and later insecurity are also consistent with a regime constructed after a rupture rather than automatically accepted beforehand. Why included: Generated from contingent institutional path-closure theory as a rival emphasizing sequence and irreversible crisis effects. Formulation evidence: Theory/contrast only
4	h1	Fragmented civilian elites coordinated to revise the constitution, using Napoleon as an instrument to secure property and order before converting the revision into a stronger executive regime.	generated	25%	18%	Indeterminate fresh policy-aware verdict review required	Fragile	13%–25% Unstable	Details
Causal Mechanism: Civilian elites developed a constitutional plan, assembled financial and administrative support, and recruited Napoleon to provide leverage; legal revision then reduced representative power and institutionalized executive dominance. Theoretical Basis: Elite coordination theory predicts that threatened office-holders and property owners will prefer a controlled constitutional redesign when representative institutions appear unable to secure order. Steelman Case: H1 best explains why Bonaparte entered an existing revision project rather than initiating it alone. Sieyes pursued a stronger executive, sought military backing, and reportedly viewed Bonaparte as a risky instrument, while intermediaries negotiated political conditions. The later use of citizenship lists, a powerful Senate, and reduced legislative deliberation is consistent with a civilian-backed redesign seeking order and controlled representation. A committed advocate would argue that military coercion supplied leverage but did not determine the constitutional architecture. Why included: Generated from the elite-coordination and constitutional-revision framework as a rival to military-personalist and crisis-contingency explanations. Formulation evidence: Theory/contrast only

Robustness & Sensitivity Analysis

h2: Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and troop control into personal r Fragile

Comparative support: 40% Rank stable

40% [30% – 50%]

Top drivers:

c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan: Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to (LR=1.24)

c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists: The Constitution created successive citizenship lists throug (LR=1.18)

c01_evi_directory_institutional_design: Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executi (LR=1.07)

H0_residual: None of the listed explanations (other cause, or a genuinely conjunctural combin Unknown

Comparative support: 24% Rank unstable

24% [19% – 29%]

Top drivers:

h3: Specific episodes during the 19 Brumaire crisis closed previously viable republi Fragile

Comparative support: 18% Rank unstable

18% [12% – 26%]

Top drivers:

c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists: The Constitution created successive citizenship lists throug (LR=0.83)

c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan: Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to (LR=0.87)

c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage: Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sie (LR=0.91)

h1: Fragmented civilian elites coordinated to revise the constitution, using Napoleo Fragile

Comparative support: 18% Rank unstable

18% [13% – 25%]

Top drivers:

c03_evi_bonaparte_self_justification: Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed C (LR=0.90)

c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage: Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sie (LR=1.11)

c01_evi_directory_institutional_design: Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executi (LR=0.92)

Likelihood Policy Custody and Legacy Sensitivity

Primary: uncapped centered raw likelihood ratios with continuous log-scale relevance. Source type does not cap diagnostic strength. Primary support: h2: 40%, H0_residual: 24%, h3: 18%, h1: 18%.

Scenario	Ranking	Comparative support	Rank effect	Largest support shift	Verdict / strength prose
Legacy 20:1 cap	h2 → H0_residual → h3 → h1	h2: 40%, H0_residual: 24%, h3: 18%, h1: 18%	rank preserved	0%	no numerical trigger
Legacy 5:1 interpretive / 20:1 general caps	h2 → H0_residual → h3 → h1	h2: 40%, H0_residual: 24%, h3: 18%, h1: 18%	rank preserved	0%	no numerical trigger
Historical 0.4 floor plus 5:1 / 20:1 caps	h2 → H0_residual → h1 → h3	h2: 41%, H0_residual: 23%, h1: 18%, h3: 17%	rank changed	1%	fresh review required

The 20:1 cap, 5:1/20:1 source-type caps, and former 0.4 floor are historical stress scenarios. They are not privileged estimates and do not overwrite the raw likelihood vectors.

Diagnostic Test Matrix

136 informative / 246 total evaluations shown. 110 uninformative (LR ≈ 1.0) hidden.

Evidence	Direction	Rel. likelihood	Effective LR	Diagnostic	Relevance	Justification
Source D reports that Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed g	against	1.00	0.61	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Armed entry into the Five Hundred and resistance inside the chamber directly show coercive legislative intimidation at the focal rupture; secondary narration may compress sequence and motives.
The conspiracy distributed distinct roles across the Councils, Directory, depart	favors	2.20	1.48	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Distributed pre-coup roles across civilian, legislative, departmental, and police actors indicate organized planning; memoir narration may overstate coherence.
A significant Jacobin presence surprised plotters, and deputies renewed their vo	against	1.00	0.69	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Jacobin presence and renewed constitutional vows demonstrate that republican alternatives remained active until the crisis; the overview records public legislative behavior directly but may simplify factional composition.
Bonaparte was poorly received and challenged after speaking incoherently about t	against	1.00	0.71	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Bonaparte's failed speech and immediate resistance show that personal authority was insufficient without subsequent coercion, highlighting contingent institutional breakdown; the narrative is retrospective and may dramatize the scene. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_011.
The second day became crucial because the conspirators no longer had surprise an	against	1.00	0.72	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Loss of surprise and recognition of the trap made the second day a contingent turning point; critical historiography is interpretive but specifically focused on the crisis sequence. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_009.
Sieyes viewed Bonaparte as dangerous and ambitious and hesitated to include him,	favors	1.59	1.39	Smoking Gun	0.75	The pre-coup account depicts Bonaparte as a dangerous recruit selected because alternatives failed, supporting civilian recruitment of an instrument; its interpretive overview limits certainty. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_004.
Sieyes initially planned voluntary transfer of power to a revisionary commission	favors	1.59	1.38	Smoking Gun	0.80	A pre-Brumaire civilian revision plan with Bonaparte subordinate directly supports civilian sequencing and conflicts with Napoleon-first coercion; the secondary account is temporally close but may privilege Sieyes's retrospective narrative. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_018.
Sieyes sought a military backer because he wanted a coup but needed force to sup	favors	1.59	1.36	Smoking Gun	0.75	Records a civilian coup objective and the search for force as a supporting instrument before Brumaire; the overview directly observes the predicted sequence, though not the complete plan. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_001, disc_002.
The decree adjourned the legislative body until 20 February 1800 while the commi	against	1.20	0.74	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Adjournment suspended representative activity during emergency executive rule, strongly documenting institutional closure; the legal decree cannot alone identify who caused it.
Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sieyes and Bonaparte be	favors	1.79	1.34	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Retrospective archival analysis records civilian brokerage under surveillance, supporting coordinated planning, but its mediation role and transmission limit independence and completeness. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Crook argues that Bonaparte subsequently reshaped the new constitution in a more	against	0.80	0.76	Straw In The Wind	0.90	A subsequent Bonapartist reshaping of the constitution fits personal appropriation after the initial coalition; this is an interpretive synthesis that may reflect outcome-centered selection. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Bourrienne reports that, after Lucien's legitimation performance, Bonaparte sign	against	0.70	0.76	Straw In The Wind	1.00	The insider sequence links Bonaparte's signal, Murat's grenadiers, and the expulsion of representatives, directly tracing coercive authorization; memoir evidence is vulnerable to retrospective reconstruction. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_016.
Fouche warned that postponement would jeopardize the conspiracy.	favors	1.80	1.30	Straw In The Wind	0.80	A warning about delay implies an organized conspiracy with timing requirements, but the memoir preserves a single retrospective warning rather than independent corroboration.
Several hundred deputies were rounded up before a session endorsed the events, a	against	1.10	0.77	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Rounding up deputies before ratification shows coercion shaping the institutional settlement while also evidencing crisis closure; the secondary narrative may merge distinct procedural stages.
Murat announced the dissolution of the deputies, who panicked and partly fled be	against	0.70	0.78	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Murat's force-backed dissolution prevented free legislative completion and directly demonstrates coercive closure at the focal moment; the account is secondary but records a concrete public act. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Roederer attributes coordination of conduct to Talleyrand and negotiation of pol	favors	1.70	1.28	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Attributes coordination and political-condition bargaining to civilian brokers, but a retrospective report cannot show whether these negotiations controlled the final constitutional settlement.
Lucien called on troops to defend Bonaparte and thereby enabled military interve	against	0.90	0.79	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A Bonaparte family broker directly mobilized troops during the legislative confrontation, strongly supporting coercive conversion of crisis into executive rule; secondary accounts may compress the sequence. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_014.
The Constitution created successive citizenship lists through which public offic	favors	2.00	1.26	Smoking Gun	0.95	The constitutional design filters popular selection through higher institutions, directly matching a civilian-backed revision toward property and order; the legal text records design but not authorship.
After becoming a director, Sieyes sought constitutional change toward a stronger	favors	1.70	1.26	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Shows civilian constitutional revision toward a stronger executive before Brumaire, supporting elite planning, but the brief overview lacks a detailed plan or proof of implementation.
Conspirators met at Bonaparte's apartment and selected 18 Brumaire as the coup d	favors	1.80	1.26	Straw In The Wind	0.90	A preselected date and meeting place indicate deliberate planning before institutional breakdown, though the overview may reproduce a simplified narrative.
Negotiations between Sieyes and Bonaparte began in mutual distrust, while Talley	favors	1.70	1.26	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Shows pre-coup bargaining, safeguards, and civilian intermediaries, but mutual distrust and an overview source leave control of the final outcome unresolved.
The use of military force during Brumaire strengthened Bonaparte's hand.	against	0.90	0.80	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Military intervention strengthened Bonaparte during the focal crisis, fitting personalist conversion of force; the interpretive account summarizes later historical reconstruction rather than direct orders.
Sieyes had support from financial-sector figures Perier and Perregaux before Bru	favors	1.60	1.25	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Financial backing indicates civilian organizational capacity before Brumaire, but the overview does not establish its scale, independence, or relation to the final settlement.
Bonaparte defended his vision of the Republic before the Ancients but did not de	against	1.30	0.81	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Rejecting defense of the existing Constitution shows an intentional constitutional break during the crisis; the overview reports public rhetoric rather than private intent.
Bonaparte's command of the 17th Division, nominally protective, gave him operati	against	1.10	0.81	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A nominal protective command granting operational freedom links institutional authorization to Bonaparte's capacity for coercive action; the narrative may infer intention from subsequent events.
Lucien declared he would resist his brother if Napoleon violated French liberty,	against	1.00	0.82	Straw In The Wind	0.85	The liberty framing shows how a family broker legitimated military intervention, but the speech's justificatory content is not proof of underlying intent.
A rumor of a Jacobin plot helped secure the decree relocating the assemblies to	against	1.20	0.82	Straw In The Wind	0.90	A rumor enabled an emergency relocation that altered the institutional setting; the overview records the public justification but not its full evidentiary basis.
Despite military and executive maneuvers, conspirators still needed legislative	favors	2.00	1.21	Hoop	0.90	The continued need for legislative votes shows that constitutional legalization remained a necessary stage after coercive maneuvers; this is a narrative claim about conspirators' strategy.
Bonaparte reportedly chose Sieyes's party because Sieyes lacked political ambiti	favors	1.70	1.21	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Bonaparte's coalition choice favors collaboration with Sieyes's revision faction, though the insider memoir may rationalize motives retrospectively.
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte dictated a proclamation immediately after the	against	1.00	0.83	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Immediate post-expulsion message management indicates Bonaparte sought to shape legitimation after coercion; a private-secretary memoir may overstate his authorship or timing.
The memoir attributes cooperation between Sieyes and Bonaparte to mediators conv	favors	1.60	1.20	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Pre-coup mediation links Bonaparte to Sieyes's revision effort, but the memoir's retrospective and interested production limits discrimination.
The eighty-member Conservative Senate selected legislators, tribunes, consuls, j	favors	1.80	1.19	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A self-selecting Senate with broad appointment powers institutionalized elite control and weakened parliamentary accountability; the constitutional provision is a settlement trace, not proof of who dictated it.
The memoir says Bonaparte abandoned the idea of becoming a Director and turned t	against	0.90	0.84	Straw In The Wind	0.75	The memoir attributes to Bonaparte an ambition for the whole executive office, but it does not directly observe the final constitution or prove that ambition determined it. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Source E reports that Bonaparte faced growing resistance and nearly fainted duri	against	1.20	0.85	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Resistance and Bonaparte's loss of composure indicate an improvised, contested crisis, modestly favoring institutional breakdown; secondary reporting may emphasize dramatic episodes.
Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin while effectively neutr	against	1.19	0.85	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Armed protection converted refusal to resign into effective neutralization, directly demonstrating coercive closure of the executive; the source compresses several actors into a linear account. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_008.
Bonaparte claimed alleged assassins threatened deputies and forced guards to cle	against	0.80	0.87	Straw In The Wind	0.80	The alleged assassins supplied post-coup legitimation for clearing the hall, but the claim is self-serving and contested by other accounts.
The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named Sieyes, Roger-Ducos,	against	1.50	0.87	Straw In The Wind	1.00	The decree formally converted the crisis into consular executive authority, compatible with all three mechanisms; a legal text records the settlement more clearly than the causal process.
Bonaparte's military allies occupied ministries, legislative sites, bridges, and	against	1.15	0.87	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Widespread occupation of ministries, bridges, and legislative routes is direct evidence of planned coercive control at the focal event; overview narration may repeat a standard coup sequence. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Talleyrand secured Barras's resignation, leaving the Directory without its execu	against	1.50	0.88	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Barras's resignation removed the Directory's executive capacity immediately during Brumaire, showing institutional closure through brokerage; the narrative does not establish which actor was decisive.
After the Second and Third Consuls recorded opinions, the First Consul's decisio	against	0.90	0.88	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Unilateral final decision authority strongly fits personal executive dominance; the constitutional wording directly records the rule but not its production sequence.
Bonaparte summoned Lefebvre and loyal officers to assemble armed and uniformed b	against	1.16	0.88	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Bonaparte's direct summons of the Paris garrison for armed assembly immediately precedes the coup, strongly indicating personal military initiative; the narrative source may privilege agency. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_007.
The Year VII elections were endorsed rather than overturned, challenging an inev	against	0.90	0.89	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Endorsed elections contradict an already inevitable institutional collapse; secondary historical analysis preserves the event but may reflect later anti-teleological interpretation.
Retiring Consuls Sieyes and Roger-Ducos entered the Senate and helped appoint mo	favors	1.20	1.12	Straw In The Wind	0.90	The constitution institutionalized elite control after the coup; as a legal text, it records formal design but cannot identify which actor caused it.
Crook reports that the Directory retained a male taxpaying franchise of about fi	against	0.90	0.90	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Operational republican institutions show that alternatives remained viable before Brumaire; retrospective historiography records institutional features but may compress variation.
Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed Constitution had led	against	1.00	0.90	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Bonaparte's account foregrounds divided authority and constitutional breakdown, modestly supporting a crisis interpretation; as self-justification, it is strategically produced and not independent causal evidence.

Evidence	Direction	Rel. likelihood	Effective LR	Diagnostic	Relevance	Justification
Murat announced the dissolution of the deputies, who panicked and partly fled be	favors	1.39	1.55	Smoking Gun	1.00	Murat's force-backed dissolution prevented free legislative completion and directly demonstrates coercive closure at the focal moment; the account is secondary but records a concrete public act. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Bourrienne reports that, after Lucien's legitimation performance, Bonaparte sign	favors	1.39	1.52	Smoking Gun	1.00	The insider sequence links Bonaparte's signal, Murat's grenadiers, and the expulsion of representatives, directly tracing coercive authorization; memoir evidence is vulnerable to retrospective reconstruction. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_016.
Lucien called on troops to defend Bonaparte and thereby enabled military interve	favors	1.79	1.51	Smoking Gun	0.95	A Bonaparte family broker directly mobilized troops during the legislative confrontation, strongly supporting coercive conversion of crisis into executive rule; secondary accounts may compress the sequence. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_014.
Bonaparte's military allies occupied ministries, legislative sites, bridges, and	favors	1.99	1.51	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Widespread occupation of ministries, bridges, and legislative routes is direct evidence of planned coercive control at the focal event; overview narration may repeat a standard coup sequence. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin while effectively neutr	favors	2.19	1.51	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Armed protection converted refusal to resign into effective neutralization, directly demonstrating coercive closure of the executive; the source compresses several actors into a linear account. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_008.
Bonaparte's command of the 17th Division, nominally protective, gave him operati	favors	2.10	1.51	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A nominal protective command granting operational freedom links institutional authorization to Bonaparte's capacity for coercive action; the narrative may infer intention from subsequent events.
Bonaparte summoned Lefebvre and loyal officers to assemble armed and uniformed b	favors	1.99	1.47	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Bonaparte's direct summons of the Paris garrison for armed assembly immediately precedes the coup, strongly indicating personal military initiative; the narrative source may privilege agency. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_007.
Source D reports that Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed g	favors	2.40	1.47	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Armed entry into the Five Hundred and resistance inside the chamber directly show coercive legislative intimidation at the focal rupture; secondary narration may compress sequence and motives.
Generals and officers loyal to Bonaparte assembled in uniform before the formal	favors	1.99	1.44	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Uniformed loyal officers assembled before formal authorization, indicating Bonaparte's coercive capacity; memoir production may magnify personal loyalty. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_006.
After the Second and Third Consuls recorded opinions, the First Consul's decisio	favors	1.50	1.43	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Unilateral final decision authority strongly fits personal executive dominance; the constitutional wording directly records the rule but not its production sequence.
Crook argues that Bonaparte subsequently reshaped the new constitution in a more	favors	1.59	1.41	Straw In The Wind	0.90	A subsequent Bonapartist reshaping of the constitution fits personal appropriation after the initial coalition; this is an interpretive synthesis that may reflect outcome-centered selection. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
The memoir says Bonaparte abandoned the idea of becoming a Director and turned t	favors	1.79	1.41	Straw In The Wind	0.75	The memoir attributes to Bonaparte an ambition for the whole executive office, but it does not directly observe the final constitution or prove that ambition determined it. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Several hundred deputies were rounded up before a session endorsed the events, a	favors	2.00	1.41	Smoking Gun	1.00	Rounding up deputies before ratification shows coercion shaping the institutional settlement while also evidencing crisis closure; the secondary narrative may merge distinct procedural stages.
The First Consul promulgated laws and controlled appointments and dismissals acr	favors	1.50	1.39	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Concentrated appointment power fits personalist executive rule; the legal provision is direct evidence of institutional outcome but not of who dictated it.
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to selected assistants	favors	1.79	1.32	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Memoir evidence of restricted knowledge supports personal strategic control, but retrospective solicitation and lack of direct orders prevent a stronger discriminator. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
The Constitution named Bonaparte First Consul and gave him special duties and pr	favors	1.40	1.31	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Naming Bonaparte First Consul records personal executive elevation immediately after Brumaire, but the constitutional text cannot distinguish prior design from later appropriation.
The use of military force during Brumaire strengthened Bonaparte's hand.	favors	1.50	1.30	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Military intervention strengthened Bonaparte during the focal crisis, fitting personalist conversion of force; the interpretive account summarizes later historical reconstruction rather than direct orders.
Lucien declared he would resist his brother if Napoleon violated French liberty,	favors	1.70	1.28	Straw In The Wind	0.85	The liberty framing shows how a family broker legitimated military intervention, but the speech's justificatory content is not proof of underlying intent.
Crook says the Constitution of Year VIII dropped the Declaration of Rights and m	favors	1.40	1.26	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Reduced rights language fits authoritarian constitutional closure and executive concentration; the interpretive reading is corroborated by the legal text but does not identify the originating actor.
Sieyes initially planned voluntary transfer of power to a revisionary commission	against	0.80	0.80	Straw In The Wind	0.80	A pre-Brumaire civilian revision plan with Bonaparte subordinate directly supports civilian sequencing and conflicts with Napoleon-first coercion; the secondary account is temporally close but may privilege Sieyes's retrospective narrative. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_018.
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte dictated a proclamation immediately after the	favors	1.60	1.24	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Immediate post-expulsion message management indicates Bonaparte sought to shape legitimation after coercion; a private-secretary memoir may overstate his authorship or timing.
Bourrienne deceived Barras by using Bonaparte's name to explain his absence, lea	favors	1.70	1.23	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Deception of a sitting director facilitated the coup and is compatible with both elite coordination and Bonapartist manipulation; private memoir reporting limits separation.
The government proposed laws and controlled internal security, external defense,	favors	1.30	1.21	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Central control of security and armed forces fits executive consolidation; the legal text records formal allocation but cannot distinguish design motives.
Sieyes viewed Bonaparte as dangerous and ambitious and hesitated to include him,	against	0.80	0.83	Straw In The Wind	0.75	The pre-coup account depicts Bonaparte as a dangerous recruit selected because alternatives failed, supporting civilian recruitment of an instrument; its interpretive overview limits certainty. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_004.
The Tribunate could discuss laws, but the Legislative Body voted secretly withou	favors	1.30	1.17	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Reduced legislative deliberation fits executive consolidation; the constitutional record directly preserves institutional rules but not their causal authorship.
The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named Sieyes, Roger-Ducos,	favors	2.00	1.16	Straw In The Wind	1.00	The decree formally converted the crisis into consular executive authority, compatible with all three mechanisms; a legal text records the settlement more clearly than the causal process.
The Consuls' proclamation attributed the death of the Constitution of Year III t	against	1.20	0.86	Straw In The Wind	0.90	The proclamation frames Year III as institutionally incapable of protecting rights, supporting a closure account; official post-coup rhetoric is designed to legitimate replacement.
Bonaparte's victories and negotiations in Italy produced exceptional military pr	favors	1.60	1.15	Straw In The Wind	0.45	Prestige supplied leverage for personal rule, but this retrospective interpretation predates Brumaire and does not observe the decisive legislative sequence.
Crook attributes the 1799 military reverses partly to Bonaparte's adventurism in	favors	1.30	1.15	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Bonaparte's prior actions contributing to crisis fit personal agency but do not establish coup timing; this is an interpretive secondary claim vulnerable to retrospective attribution.
Despite military and executive maneuvers, conspirators still needed legislative	against	1.40	0.88	Straw In The Wind	0.90	The continued need for legislative votes shows that constitutional legalization remained a necessary stage after coercive maneuvers; this is a narrative claim about conspirators' strategy.
The conspiracy distributed distinct roles across the Councils, Directory, depart	against	1.20	0.89	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Distributed pre-coup roles across civilian, legislative, departmental, and police actors indicate organized planning; memoir narration may overstate coherence.
The eighty-member Conservative Senate selected legislators, tribunes, consuls, j	favors	1.70	1.13	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A self-selecting Senate with broad appointment powers institutionalized elite control and weakened parliamentary accountability; the constitutional provision is a settlement trace, not proof of who dictated it.
The Year VII elections were endorsed rather than overturned, challenging an inev	against	0.90	0.89	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Endorsed elections contradict an already inevitable institutional collapse; secondary historical analysis preserves the event but may reflect later anti-teleological interpretation.
Crook reports that the Directory retained a male taxpaying franchise of about fi	against	0.90	0.90	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Operational republican institutions show that alternatives remained viable before Brumaire; retrospective historiography records institutional features but may compress variation.
Bonaparte claimed alleged assassins threatened deputies and forced guards to cle	favors	1.10	1.12	Straw In The Wind	0.80	The alleged assassins supplied post-coup legitimation for clearing the hall, but the claim is self-serving and contested by other accounts.
The Directory appointed Bonaparte commander of the Army of Italy, after which hi	favors	1.50	1.12	Straw In The Wind	0.40	Records the civilian regime's role in creating Bonaparte's influence, but the 1796 appointment is remote and does not show coup control.
The proclamation blamed ambitious factions and promised a republic founded on eq	against	1.20	0.90	Straw In The Wind	0.85	The promise of a representative republic shows the regime sought republican legitimacy despite institutional restriction; proclamatory language is shaped by audience management.
Bonaparte defended his vision of the Republic before the Ancients but did not de	favors	1.80	1.11	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Rejecting defense of the existing Constitution shows an intentional constitutional break during the crisis; the overview reports public rhetoric rather than private intent.
The decree adjourned the legislative body until 20 February 1800 while the commi	favors	1.80	1.11	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Adjournment suspended representative activity during emergency executive rule, strongly documenting institutional closure; the legal decree cannot alone identify who caused it.
Bonaparte's arrival at Frejus generated public acclaim while France faced renewe	favors	1.50	1.10	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Combines immediate crisis with public acclaim that could enable Bonaparte, but an overview account cannot identify the decisive mechanism.
Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing a royalist insurrection, makin	favors	1.50	1.10	Straw In The Wind	0.40	Shows Bonaparte became an available military instrument, but the 1795 episode is several years before the coup and does not establish decisive coercion.
Bonaparte claimed the Council of Elders summoned him and gave him control of for	favors	1.20	1.10	Straw In The Wind	0.80	The claim reveals the official legal narrative for military control, but its self-exculpatory production makes it weak evidence about actual authorization or sequence.
The Constitution authorized suspension of constitutional authority during armed	favors	1.20	1.10	Straw In The Wind	0.80	Emergency suspension powers fit a regime designed for security and executive flexibility; the legal provision is observable but not evidence of actual emergency use.

Evidence	Direction	Rel. likelihood	Effective LR	Diagnostic	Relevance	Justification
A significant Jacobin presence surprised plotters, and deputies renewed their vo	favors	2.30	1.52	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Jacobin presence and renewed constitutional vows demonstrate that republican alternatives remained active until the crisis; the overview records public legislative behavior directly but may simplify factional composition.
The second day became crucial because the conspirators no longer had surprise an	favors	1.99	1.38	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Loss of surprise and recognition of the trap made the second day a contingent turning point; critical historiography is interpretive but specifically focused on the crisis sequence. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_009.
Bonaparte was poorly received and challenged after speaking incoherently about t	favors	1.99	1.36	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Bonaparte's failed speech and immediate resistance show that personal authority was insufficient without subsequent coercion, highlighting contingent institutional breakdown; the narrative is retrospective and may dramatize the scene. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_011.
Conspirators met at Bonaparte's apartment and selected 18 Brumaire as the coup d	against	1.00	0.74	Straw In The Wind	0.90	A preselected date and meeting place indicate deliberate planning before institutional breakdown, though the overview may reproduce a simplified narrative.
The eighty-member Conservative Senate selected legislators, tribunes, consuls, j	against	1.10	0.75	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A self-selecting Senate with broad appointment powers institutionalized elite control and weakened parliamentary accountability; the constitutional provision is a settlement trace, not proof of who dictated it.
Generals and officers loyal to Bonaparte assembled in uniform before the formal	against	1.00	0.75	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Uniformed loyal officers assembled before formal authorization, indicating Bonaparte's coercive capacity; memoir production may magnify personal loyalty. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_006.
Bonaparte's military allies occupied ministries, legislative sites, bridges, and	against	1.00	0.76	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Widespread occupation of ministries, bridges, and legislative routes is direct evidence of planned coercive control at the focal event; overview narration may repeat a standard coup sequence. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
The conspiracy distributed distinct roles across the Councils, Directory, depart	against	1.00	0.76	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Distributed pre-coup roles across civilian, legislative, departmental, and police actors indicate organized planning; memoir narration may overstate coherence.
The First Consul promulgated laws and controlled appointments and dismissals acr	against	0.80	0.76	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Concentrated appointment power fits personalist executive rule; the legal provision is direct evidence of institutional outcome but not of who dictated it.
Bonaparte summoned Lefebvre and loyal officers to assemble armed and uniformed b	against	1.00	0.77	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Bonaparte's direct summons of the Paris garrison for armed assembly immediately precedes the coup, strongly indicating personal military initiative; the narrative source may privilege agency. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_007.
A rumor of a Jacobin plot helped secure the decree relocating the assemblies to	favors	2.00	1.30	Straw In The Wind	0.90	A rumor enabled an emergency relocation that altered the institutional setting; the overview records the public justification but not its full evidentiary basis.
The Constitution created successive citizenship lists through which public offic	against	1.20	0.78	Straw In The Wind	0.95	The constitutional design filters popular selection through higher institutions, directly matching a civilian-backed revision toward property and order; the legal text records design but not authorship.
Bourrienne deceived Barras by using Bonaparte's name to explain his absence, lea	against	1.00	0.78	Straw In The Wind	0.85	Deception of a sitting director facilitated the coup and is compatible with both elite coordination and Bonapartist manipulation; private memoir reporting limits separation.
Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin while effectively neutr	against	1.10	0.78	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Armed protection converted refusal to resign into effective neutralization, directly demonstrating coercive closure of the executive; the source compresses several actors into a linear account. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_008.
The Year VII elections were endorsed rather than overturned, challenging an inev	favors	1.50	1.27	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Endorsed elections contradict an already inevitable institutional collapse; secondary historical analysis preserves the event but may reflect later anti-teleological interpretation.
After the Second and Third Consuls recorded opinions, the First Consul's decisio	against	0.80	0.79	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Unilateral final decision authority strongly fits personal executive dominance; the constitutional wording directly records the rule but not its production sequence.
The Constitution named Bonaparte First Consul and gave him special duties and pr	against	0.80	0.79	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Naming Bonaparte First Consul records personal executive elevation immediately after Brumaire, but the constitutional text cannot distinguish prior design from later appropriation.
Roederer attributes coordination of conduct to Talleyrand and negotiation of pol	against	0.90	0.79	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Attributes coordination and political-condition bargaining to civilian brokers, but a retrospective report cannot show whether these negotiations controlled the final constitutional settlement.
Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sieyes and Bonaparte be	against	0.90	0.80	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Retrospective archival analysis records civilian brokerage under surveillance, supporting coordinated planning, but its mediation role and transmission limit independence and completeness. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Crook reports that the Directory retained a male taxpaying franchise of about fi	favors	1.40	1.25	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Operational republican institutions show that alternatives remained viable before Brumaire; retrospective historiography records institutional features but may compress variation.
The Consuls' proclamation attributed the death of the Constitution of Year III t	favors	1.80	1.25	Straw In The Wind	0.90	The proclamation frames Year III as institutionally incapable of protecting rights, supporting a closure account; official post-coup rhetoric is designed to legitimate replacement.
Negotiations between Sieyes and Bonaparte began in mutual distrust, while Talley	against	0.90	0.81	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Shows pre-coup bargaining, safeguards, and civilian intermediaries, but mutual distrust and an overview source leave control of the final outcome unresolved.
Sieyes sought a military backer because he wanted a coup but needed force to sup	against	0.80	0.81	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Records a civilian coup objective and the search for force as a supporting instrument before Brumaire; the overview directly observes the predicted sequence, though not the complete plan. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_001, disc_002.
The decree adjourned the legislative body until 20 February 1800 while the commi	favors	2.00	1.23	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Adjournment suspended representative activity during emergency executive rule, strongly documenting institutional closure; the legal decree cannot alone identify who caused it.
Fouche warned that postponement would jeopardize the conspiracy.	against	1.00	0.81	Straw In The Wind	0.80	A warning about delay implies an organized conspiracy with timing requirements, but the memoir preserves a single retrospective warning rather than independent corroboration.
Bonaparte's command of the 17th Division, nominally protective, gave him operati	against	1.10	0.81	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A nominal protective command granting operational freedom links institutional authorization to Bonaparte's capacity for coercive action; the narrative may infer intention from subsequent events.
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to selected assistants	against	0.90	0.82	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Memoir evidence of restricted knowledge supports personal strategic control, but retrospective solicitation and lack of direct orders prevent a stronger discriminator. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Source E reports that Bonaparte faced growing resistance and nearly fainted duri	favors	1.80	1.22	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Resistance and Bonaparte's loss of composure indicate an improvised, contested crisis, modestly favoring institutional breakdown; secondary reporting may emphasize dramatic episodes.
Murat announced the dissolution of the deputies, who panicked and partly fled be	against	0.74	0.83	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Murat's force-backed dissolution prevented free legislative completion and directly demonstrates coercive closure at the focal moment; the account is secondary but records a concrete public act. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
After becoming a director, Sieyes sought constitutional change toward a stronger	against	0.90	0.83	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Shows civilian constitutional revision toward a stronger executive before Brumaire, supporting elite planning, but the brief overview lacks a detailed plan or proof of implementation.
Sieyes had support from financial-sector figures Perier and Perregaux before Bru	against	0.90	0.83	Straw In The Wind	0.70	Financial backing indicates civilian organizational capacity before Brumaire, but the overview does not establish its scale, independence, or relation to the final settlement.
The memoir says Bonaparte abandoned the idea of becoming a Director and turned t	against	0.90	0.84	Straw In The Wind	0.75	The memoir attributes to Bonaparte an ambition for the whole executive office, but it does not directly observe the final constitution or prove that ambition determined it. Deterministic lineage guard compressed this row below 1.99x because at least one stronger split lacked an aligned direct link to an accepted prediction contrast.
Lucien called on troops to defend Bonaparte and thereby enabled military interve	against	0.97	0.84	Straw In The Wind	0.95	A Bonaparte family broker directly mobilized troops during the legislative confrontation, strongly supporting coercive conversion of crisis into executive rule; secondary accounts may compress the sequence. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_014.
The Tribunate could discuss laws, but the Legislative Body voted secretly withou	against	0.90	0.84	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Reduced legislative deliberation fits executive consolidation; the constitutional record directly preserves institutional rules but not their causal authorship.
Crook says the Constitution of Year VIII dropped the Declaration of Rights and m	against	0.90	0.85	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Reduced rights language fits authoritarian constitutional closure and executive concentration; the interpretive reading is corroborated by the legal text but does not identify the originating actor.
Bonaparte reportedly chose Sieyes's party because Sieyes lacked political ambiti	against	1.00	0.86	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Bonaparte's coalition choice favors collaboration with Sieyes's revision faction, though the insider memoir may rationalize motives retrospectively.
Bourrienne reports that, after Lucien's legitimation performance, Bonaparte sign	against	0.79	0.86	Straw In The Wind	1.00	The insider sequence links Bonaparte's signal, Murat's grenadiers, and the expulsion of representatives, directly tracing coercive authorization; memoir evidence is vulnerable to retrospective reconstruction. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_016.
Retiring Consuls Sieyes and Roger-Ducos entered the Senate and helped appoint mo	against	0.90	0.86	Straw In The Wind	0.90	The constitution institutionalized elite control after the coup; as a legal text, it records formal design but cannot identify which actor caused it.
Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed Constitution had led	favors	1.40	1.16	Straw In The Wind	0.75	Bonaparte's account foregrounds divided authority and constitutional breakdown, modestly supporting a crisis interpretation; as self-justification, it is strategically produced and not independent causal evidence.
Talleyrand secured Barras's resignation, leaving the Directory without its execu	favors	2.00	1.15	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Barras's resignation removed the Directory's executive capacity immediately during Brumaire, showing institutional closure through brokerage; the narrative does not establish which actor was decisive.
The government proposed laws and controlled internal security, external defense,	against	0.90	0.87	Straw In The Wind	0.90	Central control of security and armed forces fits executive consolidation; the legal text records formal allocation but cannot distinguish design motives.
Sieyes viewed Bonaparte as dangerous and ambitious and hesitated to include him,	against	0.85	0.87	Straw In The Wind	0.75	The pre-coup account depicts Bonaparte as a dangerous recruit selected because alternatives failed, supporting civilian recruitment of an instrument; its interpretive overview limits certainty. Terminal independent-audit enforcement compressed this entire row below 1.99x after independent semantic rejection of candidate(s) disc_004.
The memoir attributes cooperation between Sieyes and Bonaparte to mediators conv	against	1.00	0.88	Straw In The Wind	0.65	Pre-coup mediation links Bonaparte to Sieyes's revision effort, but the memoir's retrospective and interested production limits discrimination.
A billet records that Sieyes was urged not to abandon a group after an office ha	against	1.00	0.88	Straw In The Wind	0.70	A billet shows bargaining over an executive position near Brumaire, but its unresolved date and context prevent identifying prior planning or decisive control.
Bonaparte's victories and negotiations in Italy produced exceptional military pr	against	0.90	0.89	Straw In The Wind	0.45	Prestige supplied leverage for personal rule, but this retrospective interpretation predates Brumaire and does not observe the decisive legislative sequence.
Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing a royalist insurrection, makin	against	0.90	0.90	Straw In The Wind	0.40	Shows Bonaparte became an available military instrument, but the 1795 episode is several years before the coup and does not establish decisive coercion.
Bonaparte defended his vision of the Republic before the Ancients but did not de	favors	1.80	1.11	Straw In The Wind	0.95	Rejecting defense of the existing Constitution shows an intentional constitutional break during the crisis; the overview reports public rhetoric rather than private intent.
Source D reports that Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed g	favors	1.80	1.11	Straw In The Wind	1.00	Armed entry into the Five Hundred and resistance inside the chamber directly show coercive legislative intimidation at the focal rupture; secondary narration may compress sequence and motives.

Bayesian Update Summary

h1: Fragmented civilian elites coordinated to revise t

Fragile 0.180

0.250 → 0.180

Show update graph | Show update table

Each dot is an evidence update. Green = LR > 1 (supports). Red = LR < 1 (opposes). Dashed line = prior. Hover dots for details.

Evidence	Effective LR	Cumulative Posterior
Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executi	0.922	0.2301
Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sie	1.106	0.2546
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to	0.933	0.2340
The second day became crucial because the conspirators no lo	0.928	0.2166
The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named S	0.940	0.2039
Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed C	0.898	0.1812

h2: Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and

Fragile 0.400

0.250 → 0.400

Show update graph | Show update table

Each dot is an evidence update. Green = LR > 1 (supports). Red = LR < 1 (opposes). Dashed line = prior. Hover dots for details.

Evidence	Effective LR	Cumulative Posterior
Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executi	1.071	0.2675
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to	1.238	0.3245
Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed C	1.063	0.3494
The Constitution created successive citizenship lists throug	1.177	0.4003

h3: Specific episodes during the 19 Brumaire crisis cl

Fragile 0.184

0.250 → 0.184

Show update graph | Show update table

Each dot is an evidence update. Green = LR > 1 (supports). Red = LR < 1 (opposes). Dashed line = prior. Hover dots for details.

Evidence	Effective LR	Cumulative Posterior
Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sie	0.908	0.2295
Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to	0.866	0.1957
The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named S	1.075	0.2185
The Constitution created successive citizenship lists throug	0.833	0.1836

H0_residual: None of the listed explanations (other cause, or a

Unknown 0.236

0.250 → 0.236

Show update graph | Show update table

Each dot is an evidence update. Green = LR > 1 (supports). Red = LR < 1 (opposes). Dashed line = prior. Hover dots for details.

Evidence	Effective LR	Cumulative Posterior

Diagnostic Test Matrix

A-level claim blocked: 1 rival pair(s) have no source-grounded discriminators. These pairs: h2↔h3.

Discriminators are evidence items where |log(LR_h1/LR_h2)| ≥ log(2). Strong = 2–5× LR ratio; decisive = 5×+. Up to 5 strongest shown per pair.

Rival pair	H1 description	H2 description	# discriminators	Top discriminators
`h1` vs `h2`	Fragmented civilian elites coordinated to revise t	Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and	1	strong Source D reports that Bonaparte entered the Council of … → favors h2 (log-ratio=0.88) Prediction lineage: pred_h2_01 (observed)
`h1` vs `h3`	Fragmented civilian elites coordinated to revise t	Specific episodes during the 19 Brumaire crisis cl	1	strong A significant Jacobin presence surprised plotters, and … → favors h3 (log-ratio=0.79) Prediction lineage: pred_h3_02 (observed)
`h2` vs `h3`NO ACCEPTED DISCRIMINATORS — GRADE LIMITED	Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and	Specific episodes during the 19 Brumaire crisis cl	0	none

Evidence Inventory

ID	Description	Type	Disposition	Date	Source / Genre / Group	Trace role	Source Text
`c01_evi_directory_institutional_design`	Source D says the 1795 regime combined a five-member executive with two councils to avoid both one-man tyranny and uncontrolled democratic radicalism.	Empirical	Near-neutral	1795	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_015` Anchor: “Its constitutional design tried to avoid both one-man tyranny and uncontrolled democratic radicalism.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	background	1795: The Directory replaced the Thermidorian Convention. Source D says the new ...
`c01_evi_directory_middle_way`	Source D characterizes the Directory as a middle-way regime between monarchy and demagogy rather than a purely military government.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	1795	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_016` Anchor: “a "middle way" between monarchy and demagogy” overview Temporal evidence sequence	background	1795: Source D describes the Directory's mission, in Antoine Thibaudeau's words,...
`c01_evi_directory_early_stresses`	Source D lists several political and factional crises that placed early stress on the Directory.	Empirical	Near-neutral	1795-1797	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_017` Anchor: “Babeuf's Conspiracy of Equals, continuing insurrection in the Vendee, General Pichegru's royalist defection, and the coup of 18 Fructidor Year V” overview Temporal evidence sequence	background	1795-1797: Source D lists early stresses on the Directory: Babeuf's Conspiracy o...
`c01_evi_bonaparte_suppressed_royalist_insurrection`	Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing a royalist insurrection, making him an available military solution for civilian politicians.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	5 October 1795	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_018` Anchor: “Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing a royalist insurrection” overview Temporal evidence sequence	direct	5 October 1795: Source D says Bonaparte gained regime confidence by suppressing ...
`c01_evi_bonaparte_army_of_italy`	The Directory appointed Bonaparte commander of the Army of Italy, after which his victories increased his influence among elites.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	2 March 1796	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_019` Anchor: “His later victories in Italy increased his popularity and influence among elite political actors.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	indirect	2 March 1796: Source D records that the Directory appointed Bonaparte commander ...
`c01_evi_bonaparte_military_prestige`	Bonaparte's victories and negotiations in Italy produced exceptional military prestige before Brumaire.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	1796-1797	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_020` Anchor: “This supports the claim that he had exceptional military prestige before Brumaire.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	indirect	1796-1797: Source D says Bonaparte won against Austrian commanders at Montenotte...
`c01_evi_eastern_campaign_failures`	Bonaparte's Egyptian and Syrian campaign included major naval, political, medical, and operational failures, complicating a simple hero narrative.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	1-2 August 1798 and 1799	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_022` Anchor: “These facts complicate a simple hero narrative because Bonaparte's eastern campaign produced serious military and logistical failures.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	indirect	1-2 August 1798 and 1799: Source D states that the British destroyed most of the...
`c01_evi_bonaparte_returned_during_crisis`	Bonaparte returned from Egypt with trusted men and generals while the Directory faced political and military crisis.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	23 August 1799	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_024` Anchor: “Bonaparte returned to France during the Directory's political and military crisis.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	indirect	23 August 1799: Source D says Bonaparte left Egypt aboard La Muiron with trusted...
`c01_evi_frejus_popularity_and_crisis`	Bonaparte's arrival at Frejus generated public acclaim while France faced renewed war and the Second Coalition.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	8 October 1799	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_025` Anchor: “France faced renewed war and the Second Coalition.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	background	8 October 1799: Source D says Bonaparte landed at Frejus and was cheered on the ...
`c01_evi_sieyes_stronger_executive`	After becoming a director, Sieyes sought constitutional change toward a stronger executive.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	May 1799	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_026` Anchor: “soon looked for constitutional change toward a stronger executive” overview Temporal evidence sequence	direct	May 1799: Source D says Abbe Sieyes was elected a director on 27 Floreal Year VI...
`c01_evi_sieyes_financial_support`	Sieyes had support from financial-sector figures Perier and Perregaux before Brumaire.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_027` Anchor: “Sieyes had support from financial-sector figures Claude Perier and Jean-Frederic Perregaux.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source D says Sieyes had support from financial-sector fig...
`c01_evi_sieyes_needed_military_force`	Sieyes sought a military backer because he wanted a coup but needed force to support it.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_027` Anchor: “he searched for a military backer because he wanted a coup but needed force behind it” overview Temporal evidence sequence	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source D says Sieyes had support from financial-sector fig...
`c01_evi_bonaparte_risky_instrument`	Sieyes viewed Bonaparte as dangerous and ambitious and hesitated to include him, while other military alternatives were weak, reluctant, or dead.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_028` Anchor: “Sieyes hesitated to bring Bonaparte into the plot because he saw him as dangerous and ambitious.” overview Temporal evidence sequence	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source D says Sieyes hesitated to bring Bonaparte into the...
`c01_evi_mutual_distrust_negotiations`	Negotiations between Sieyes and Bonaparte began in mutual distrust, while Talleyrand and Roederer received concrete parts of the plan.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c01_029` Anchor: “negotiations between Sieyes and Bonaparte began in mutual distrust” overview Temporal evidence sequence	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source D says negotiations between Sieyes and Bonaparte be...
`c02_evi_roederer_talleyrand_brokerage`	Roederer reports that he and Talleyrand mediated between Sieyes and Bonaparte because surveillance prevented private meetings.	Empirical	Top driver	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c02_001` Anchor: “he and Talleyrand acted as intermediaries between Sieyes and Bonaparte because scrutiny prevented private meetings” secondary_analysis Source G archival analysis	direct	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved: Source G transcribes Roederer's retros...
`c02_evi_talleyrand_roederer_bargaining`	Roederer attributes coordination of conduct to Talleyrand and negotiation of political conditions to himself.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c02_001` Anchor: “Talleyrand coordinated steps and conduct while he negotiated the political conditions of an arrangement” secondary_analysis Source G archival analysis	direct	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved: Source G transcribes Roederer's retros...
`c02_evi_sieyes_office_bargaining`	A billet records that Sieyes was urged not to abandon a group after an office had already been conferred, in the context of an executive-power dispute.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c02_002` Anchor: “Sieyes is refusing a position already conferred and implores him to take more time before abandoning the group” secondary_analysis Source G archival analysis	direct	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved: Source G transcribes a billet cited to...
`c02_evi_coalition_mistrust`	Boulay recalls that Sieyes believed he was turning toward Bonaparte, while Boulay immediately denied the accusation.	Empirical	Near-neutral	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c02_003` Anchor: “Sieyes believed Boulay was turning toward Bonaparte. Boulay immediately adds that Sieyes was mistaken” secondary_analysis Source G archival analysis	indirect	Brumaire Year VIII, exact day unresolved: Source G quotes Boulay recalling a col...
`c02_evi_bonaparte_secret_plan`	Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte confided his plan only to selected assistants while others followed the impulse given to them.	Empirical	Top driver	1799 before Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_004` Anchor: “Bonaparte's plan was confided to very few people, only those whose assistance he wanted” memoir Source F memoir	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source F says Bonaparte's plan was confided to very few pe...
`c02_evi_bonaparte_whole_office_aim`	The memoir says Bonaparte abandoned the idea of becoming a Director and turned toward possessing the whole office after the age rule impeded that path.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_005` Anchor: “Bonaparte had first considered becoming a Director but turned toward possessing the whole office after the age rule made that path difficult” memoir Source F memoir	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source F says Bonaparte had first considered becoming a Di...
`c02_evi_mediated_sieyes_bonaparte_cooperation`	The memoir attributes cooperation between Sieyes and Bonaparte to mediators converting their mutual animosity against a disliked constitution.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_005` Anchor: “mediators converted the animosity between Sieyes and Bonaparte into cooperation against a constitution both disliked” memoir Source F memoir	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source F says Bonaparte had first considered becoming a Di...
`c02_evi_bonaparte_joined_sieyes`	Bonaparte reportedly chose Sieyes's party because Sieyes lacked political ambition while Barras would not accept an inferior role.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	25 Vendemiaire Year VIII, or 17 October 1799	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_006` Anchor: “he was determined to join Sieyes's party rather than Barras's” memoir Source F memoir	direct	25 Vendemiaire Year VIII, or 17 October 1799: Source F reports Bonaparte saying ...
`c02_evi_conspiracy_roles`	The conspiracy distributed distinct roles across the Councils, Directory, departments, and police network.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	Days before 18 Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_007` Anchor: “Lucien worked the two Councils, Sieyes managed the Directory, Real worked under Fouche's instructions in the departments” memoir Source F memoir	direct	Days before 18 Brumaire: Source F says the roles in the conspiracy were distribu...
`c02_evi_fouche_delay_warning`	Fouche warned that postponement would jeopardize the conspiracy.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	14 Brumaire Year VIII	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_007` Anchor: “Fouche warned on 14 Brumaire that delay would ruin the plot” memoir Source F memoir	direct	Days before 18 Brumaire: Source F says the roles in the conspiracy were distribu...
`c02_evi_barras_deception`	Bourrienne deceived Barras by using Bonaparte's name to explain his absence, leading Barras to think Bonaparte had settled everything.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	17 Brumaire Year VIII	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_008` Anchor: “tell Barras that illness delayed Bonaparte until the next day” memoir Source F memoir	direct	17 Brumaire: Source F says Bonaparte told Bourrienne to go to Barras in Bonapart...
`c02_evi_prepositioned_generals`	Generals and officers loyal to Bonaparte assembled in uniform before the formal transfer to Saint-Cloud, although Bernadotte refused to follow without orders.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	Morning of 18 Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_009` Anchor: “all generals devoted to Bonaparte were assembled in uniform at Rue de la Victoire” memoir Source F memoir	direct	Morning of 18 Brumaire: Source F says Bourrienne found many generals and officer...
`c02_evi_false_majority_ancients`	The Council of Ancients' decree was reportedly secured through staggered notices that prevented some members from arriving in time.	Empirical	Near-neutral	Morning of 18 Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c02_010` Anchor: “the Council of Ancients' decree was passed by what Bourrienne calls a false majority” memoir Source F memoir	direct	Morning of 18 Brumaire: Source F says the Council of Ancients' decree was passed...
`c02_evi_coup_planned_at_bonaparte_apartment`	Conspirators met at Bonaparte's apartment and selected 18 Brumaire as the coup date.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	Weeks before 18 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_011` Anchor: “conspirators met at Bonaparte's apartment on Rue de la Victoire to plan the coup” overview Source D narrative	direct	Weeks before 18 Brumaire: Source D says conspirators met at Bonaparte's apartmen...
`c02_evi_lefebvre_armed_assembly`	Bonaparte summoned Lefebvre and loyal officers to assemble armed and uniformed before the official transfer.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	17 Brumaire Year VIII	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_012` Anchor: “invited General Lefebvre, commander of the Paris garrison, and loyal officers to assemble at Rue de la Victoire at 7 a.m. the next day, armed and in dress uniform” overview Source D narrative	direct	17 Brumaire Year VIII: Source D says Bonaparte invited General Lefebvre, command...
`c02_evi_jacobin_rumor_relocation`	A rumor of a Jacobin plot helped secure the decree relocating the assemblies to Saint-Cloud.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	18 Brumaire, 7 a.m.	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_013` Anchor: “the coup began with conspirators spreading a rumor of a Jacobin plot. The rumor helped ratify a decree moving the assemblies to Saint-Cloud” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire, 7 a.m.: Source D says the coup began with conspirators spreading a ...
`c02_evi_command_created_freedom_to_act`	Bonaparte's command of the 17th Division, nominally protective, gave him operational freedom.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	18 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_014` Anchor: “this gave him freedom to act” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire: Source D says Bonaparte received command of the army's 17th Divisio...
`c02_evi_bonaparte_no_constitutional_defense`	Bonaparte defended his vision of the Republic before the Ancients but did not defend the existing Constitution.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	18 Brumaire, around 10 a.m.	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_015` Anchor: “said nothing in defense of the Constitution” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire, around 10 a.m.: Source D says Bonaparte addressed the Council of An...
`c02_evi_directory_opposition_neutralized`	Moreau and three hundred men protected Gohier and Moulin while effectively neutralizing opposition within the Directory.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	18 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_016` Anchor: “Bonaparte then used Moreau and three hundred men to "protect" them at the Luxembourg, neutralizing opposition inside the Directory” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire: Source D says Ducos and Sieyes resigned as directors. Gohier and Mo...
`c02_evi_coercive_perimeter`	Bonaparte's military allies occupied ministries, legislative sites, bridges, and routes across Paris.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	18 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_017` Anchor: “Sieyes's military pawns were positioned across Paris” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire: Source D says Sieyes's military pawns were positioned across Paris:...
`c02_evi_directory_lost_executive_body`	Talleyrand secured Barras's resignation, leaving the Directory without its executive body.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	18 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_018` Anchor: “By the evening, the Directory had lost its executive body” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire: Source D says Barras waited to see which way politics would turn un...
`c02_evi_ratification_remained_necessary`	Despite military and executive maneuvers, conspirators still needed legislative votes for a new constitution.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	18 Brumaire, evening	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_019` Anchor: “the conspirators still needed the assemblies to vote for a new constitution” overview Source D narrative	direct	18 Brumaire, evening: Source D says the conspirators still needed the assemblies...
`c02_evi_surprise_lost_on_second_day`	The second day became crucial because the conspirators no longer had surprise and many members suspected a trap.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c02_020` Anchor: “the second day was crucial because surprise had been lost” secondary_analysis Source E critical historiography	indirect	19 Brumaire: Source E says the second day was crucial because surprise had been ...
`c02_evi_jacobin_presence_and_constitutional_vows`	A significant Jacobin presence surprised plotters, and deputies renewed their vows to the Constitution of Year III.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	19 Brumaire, early session	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_021` Anchor: “Debrel insisted that deputies renew their vows to the Constitution of Year III, and they did so” overview Source D narrative	direct	19 Brumaire, early session: Source D says a significant Jacobin presence surpris...
`c02_evi_bonaparte_poorly_received`	Bonaparte was poorly received and challenged after speaking incoherently about the Constitution.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c02_022` Anchor: “Bonaparte interrupted the Ancients, spoke incoherently, and was poorly received” overview Source D narrative	direct	19 Brumaire: Source D says Bonaparte interrupted the Ancients, spoke incoherentl...
`c03_evi_armed_entry_resistance`	Source D reports that Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed grenadiers and provoked accusations of dictatorship and tyranny.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	19 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c03_001` Anchor: “Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with armed grenadiers, provoking cries against dictatorship, unlawful action, and tyranny.” secondary_analysis 19 Brumaire crisis	direct	19 Brumaire: Source D says Bonaparte entered the Council of Five Hundred with ar...
`c03_evi_bonaparte_lost_composure`	Source E reports that Bonaparte faced growing resistance and nearly fainted during the confrontation.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c03_002` Anchor: “Bonaparte lost composure in the chambers, met growing resistance, and almost fainted” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	19 Brumaire: Source E says Bonaparte lost composure in the chambers, met growing...
`c03_evi_heroic_image_contradicted`	Source E presents the chamber crisis as contradicting later heroic portrayals of a controlled coup.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	19 Brumaire and later interpretation	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c03_002` Anchor: “This critical secondary account contradicts later heroic images of a calm, surgical coup.” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	19 Brumaire: Source E says Bonaparte lost composure in the chambers, met growing...
`c03_evi_lucien_calls_troops`	Lucien called on troops to defend Bonaparte and thereby enabled military intervention.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	19 Brumaire	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c03_003` Anchor: “Lucien Bonaparte saved the day by calling on troops to defend his brother.” secondary_analysis 19 Brumaire crisis	direct	19 Brumaire: Source E says Lucien Bonaparte saved the day by calling on troops t...
`c03_evi_lucien_liberty_frame`	Lucien declared he would resist his brother if Napoleon violated French liberty, framing intervention as defensive.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c03_004` Anchor: “he would resist his own brother if Napoleon violated French liberty” secondary_analysis 19 Brumaire crisis	direct	19 Brumaire: Source D says Lucien declared to the soldiers that he would resist ...
`c03_evi_murat_dissolves_deputies`	Murat announced the dissolution of the deputies, who panicked and partly fled before freely completing the process.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	19 Brumaire	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c03_005` Anchor: “Murat entered the Orangerie and announced that the deputies had been dissolved. Deputies panicked and some reportedly fled.” secondary_analysis 19 Brumaire crisis	direct	19 Brumaire: Source D says Murat entered the Orangerie and announced that the de...
`c03_evi_insider_expulsion_sequence`	Bourrienne reports that, after Lucien's legitimation performance, Bonaparte signaled Murat and grenadiers to drive out the representatives.	Empirical	Displayed discriminator	19 Brumaire	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c03_006` Anchor: “at a signal from Bonaparte, Murat and his grenadiers then drove out the representatives” memoir Private memoir account	direct	19 Brumaire: Source F says Lucien resigned the presidency rather than put the qu...
`c03_evi_roundup_and_commission`	Several hundred deputies were rounded up before a session endorsed the events, abolished the Directory, and proposed an executive commission.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire, evening	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c03_007` Anchor: “several hundred members of the Council of Five Hundred were rounded up and a session finally began around 21:00” secondary_analysis 19 Brumaire crisis	direct	19 Brumaire, evening: Source D says several hundred members of the Council of Fi...
`c03_evi_chazal_executive_commission`	Chazal proposed endorsing the two days' events, abolishing the Directory, and creating a commission including Sieyes, Ducos, and Bonaparte.	Empirical	Near-neutral	19 Brumaire, evening	`source_d_fondation_napoleon` `span_c03_007` Anchor: “Chazal proposed endorsing the two days' events, abolishing the Directory, and creating an executive commission with Sieyes, Ducos, and Bonaparte.” secondary_analysis 19 Brumaire crisis	direct	19 Brumaire, evening: Source D says several hundred members of the Council of Fi...
`c03_evi_bonaparte_dictates_proclamation`	Bourrienne reports that Bonaparte dictated a proclamation immediately after the forceful expulsion to shape next-morning discussion.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire, late night	`source_f_bourrienne_memoirs` `span_c03_008` Anchor: “Bonaparte dictated a proclamation to Bourrienne after the forceful expulsion, intending Paris to talk about it the next morning.” memoir Private memoir account	direct	19 Brumaire, late night: Source F says Bonaparte dictated a proclamation to Bour...
`c03_evi_directory_abolished_consuls`	The Brumaire Decree declared the Directory finished, named Sieyes, Roger-Ducos, and Bonaparte as Consuls, and vested them with executive authority.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	10 November 1799	`source_b_decree_proclamation` `span_c03_009` Anchor: “the Directory was no more and named Sieyes, Roger-Ducos, and General Bonaparte as Consuls of the French Republic” legal_constitutional Legal transition	direct	10 November 1799: Source B says the Brumaire Decree declared that the Directory ...
`c03_evi_legislative_adjournment`	The decree adjourned the legislative body until 20 February 1800 while the commission exercised directorial power.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	10 November 1799	`source_b_decree_proclamation` `span_c03_009` Anchor: “adjourned the legislative body until 20 February 1800” legal_constitutional Legal transition	direct	10 November 1799: Source B says the Brumaire Decree declared that the Directory ...
`c03_evi_reduced_legislative_commissions`	Each council was to appoint a twenty-five-member commission to handle urgent police, legislative, and financial matters.	Empirical	Near-neutral	10 November 1799	`source_b_decree_proclamation` `span_c03_010` Anchor: “each council was to appoint a commission of twenty-five members” legal_constitutional Legal transition	background	10 November 1799: Source B says each council was to appoint a commission of twen...
`c03_evi_constitutional_republican_language`	The decree described constitutional changes as consolidating sovereignty, representation, liberty, equality, security, and property.	Empirical	Near-neutral	10 November 1799	`source_b_decree_proclamation` `span_c03_011` Anchor: “constitutional changes meant to consolidate sovereignty, the representative system, liberty, equality, security, and property” legal_constitutional Legal transition	indirect	10 November 1799: Source B says the commissions were charged with constitutional...
`c03_evi_bonaparte_self_justification`	Bonaparte claimed divided authorities and a half-destroyed Constitution had led all parties to seek his support.	Empirical	Top driver	10 November 1799	`source_a_bonaparte_justification` `span_c03_012` Anchor: “Parisian authorities were divided, that the Constitution was "half destroyed," and that all parties asked for his support” primary_document Public justification	indirect	10 November 1799: Source A says Bonaparte's public justification claimed that Pa...
`c03_evi_elders_authorized_forces_claim`	Bonaparte claimed the Council of Elders summoned him and gave him control of forces to secure legislative independence.	Empirical	Near-neutral	10 November 1799	`source_a_bonaparte_justification` `span_c03_013` Anchor: “the Council of Elders summoned him and gave him control of forces to secure legislative independence” primary_document Public justification	indirect	10 November 1799: Source A says Bonaparte claimed the Council of Elders summoned...
`c03_evi_assassins_claim`	Bonaparte claimed alleged assassins threatened deputies and forced guards to clear Saint-Cloud.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	10 November 1799	`source_a_bonaparte_justification` `span_c03_014` Anchor: “assassins inside Saint-Cloud threatened deputies, attacked him, and forced guards to clear the hall” primary_document Public justification	indirect	10 November 1799: Source A says Bonaparte claimed assassins inside Saint-Cloud t...
`c03_evi_year_iii_failed`	The Consuls' proclamation attributed the death of the Constitution of Year III to its inability to protect rights or sustain itself.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	12 November 1799	`source_b_decree_proclamation` `span_c03_015` Anchor: “the Constitution of Year III as having perished because it could not protect rights or support itself” legal_constitutional Legal transition	indirect	12 November 1799: Source B says the Consuls' proclamation framed the Constitutio...
`c03_evi_reestablished_republic_promise`	The proclamation blamed ambitious factions and promised a republic founded on equality, liberty, and representation.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	12 November 1799	`source_b_decree_proclamation` `span_c03_015` Anchor: “promised a re-established republic founded on equality, liberty, and representation” legal_constitutional Legal transition	indirect	12 November 1799: Source B says the Consuls' proclamation framed the Constitutio...
`c03_evi_filtered_citizenship_lists`	The Constitution created successive citizenship lists through which public offices were selected, preserving voting language while filtering selection through higher institutions.	Empirical	Top driver	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_016` Anchor: “citizens chose trustworthy local names, then departmental lists, then national lists” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	background	December 1799: Source C says the Constitution of Year VIII created citizenship l...
`c03_evi_senate_selection_power`	The eighty-member Conservative Senate selected legislators, tribunes, consuls, judges, and commissioners from the national list in private sittings.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_017` Anchor: “The Conservative Senate had eighty life members and would choose legislators, tribunes, consuls, judges of cassation, and account commissioners” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	background	December 1799: Source C says the Conservative Senate had eighty life members and...
`c03_evi_elite_self_reproduction`	Retiring Consuls Sieyes and Roger-Ducos entered the Senate and helped appoint most of its members with the other Consuls.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_018` Anchor: “Sieyes and Roger-Ducos, the retiring consuls, were appointed to the Senate” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	direct	December 1799: Source C says Sieyes and Roger-Ducos, the retiring consuls, were ...
`c03_evi_legislative_deliberation_limits`	The Tribunate could discuss laws, but the Legislative Body voted secretly without discussion and the government could withdraw or modify proposals.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_019` Anchor: “the Legislative Body voted by secret ballot without discussion” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	background	December 1799: Source C says the Tribunate could discuss proposed laws, but the ...
`c03_evi_first_consul_named`	The Constitution named Bonaparte First Consul and gave him special duties and prerogatives.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_020` Anchor: “Bonaparte as First Consul, Cambaceres as Second Consul, and Lebrun as Third Consul” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	direct	December 1799: Source C names Bonaparte as First Consul, Cambaceres as Second Co...
`c03_evi_first_consul_appointments`	The First Consul promulgated laws and controlled appointments and dismissals across ministers, officials, officers, administrators, and commissioners.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_021` Anchor: “The First Consul promulgated laws and appointed or dismissed ministers, high diplomatic agents, army and navy officers, local administrators” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	direct	December 1799: Source C says the First Consul promulgated laws and appointed or ...
`c03_evi_first_consul_decision_suffices`	After the Second and Third Consuls recorded opinions, the First Consul's decision alone sufficed.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_021` Anchor: “after they recorded opinions, the First Consul's decision sufficed” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	direct	December 1799: Source C says the First Consul promulgated laws and appointed or ...
`c03_evi_government_security_control`	The government proposed laws and controlled internal security, external defense, armed forces, and foreign relations.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_022` Anchor: “It controlled internal security, external defense, the armed forces, and foreign relations.” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	background	December 1799: Source C says the government proposed laws and made regulations t...
`c03_evi_military_subordination_rule`	The Constitution declared the public force obedient and prohibited armed bodies from deliberating.	Empirical	Near-neutral	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_023` Anchor: “the public force was essentially obedient and no armed body could deliberate” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	background	December 1799: Source C says the public force was essentially obedient and no ar...
`c03_evi_legal_emergency_channel`	The Constitution authorized suspension of constitutional authority during armed rebellion or threats to state security.	Empirical	Near-neutral	December 1799	`source_c_constitution_year_viii` `span_c03_024` Anchor: “constitutional authority could be suspended in cases of armed rebellion or disturbances threatening state security” legal_constitutional Constitutional design	background	December 1799: Source C says constitutional authority could be suspended in case...
`c04_evi_directory_republican_features`	Crook reports that the Directory retained a male taxpaying franchise of about five million, departmental electoral colleges, annual legislative contests, and some press freedom.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	1795-1799	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_002` Anchor: “a male taxpaying franchise of about five million, departmental electoral colleges, annual legislative contests, some press freedom” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	background	1795-1799: Source E says the Directory had republican and pluralistic features: ...
`c04_evi_year_vii_elections_endorsed`	The Year VII elections were endorsed rather than overturned, challenging an inevitable-collapse interpretation.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	Year VII	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_002` Anchor: “Year VII elections that were endorsed rather than overturned” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	1795-1799: Source E says the Directory had republican and pluralistic features: ...
`c04_evi_bonaparte_helped_create_crisis`	Crook attributes the 1799 military reverses partly to Bonaparte's adventurism in the Middle East.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	1799	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_003` Anchor: “Bonaparte himself helped create the crisis because the military reverses of 1799 followed from his adventurism in the Middle East” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	1799: Source E says Bonaparte himself helped create the crisis because the milit...
`c04_evi_deputies_feared_extremes`	Many recently elected deputies viewed constitutional revision as an alternative to Jacobin terror or royalist restoration.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	1799 before Brumaire	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_004` Anchor: “many recently elected deputies believed constitutional revision was the alternative to Jacobin terror or royalist restoration” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	1799 before Brumaire: Source E says many recently elected deputies believed cons...
`c04_evi_sieyes_voluntary_revision_plan`	Sieyes initially planned voluntary transfer of power to a revisionary commission and intended Bonaparte's role to remain subordinate.	Empirical	Tested weak signal	1799 before Brumaire	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_005` Anchor: “Sieyes's original plan was to persuade the two councils to yield power voluntarily to a revisionary commission. Bonaparte's role was intended to be subordinate.” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	direct	1799 before Brumaire: Source E says Sieyes's original plan was to persuade the t...
`c04_evi_military_force_strengthened_bonaparte`	The use of military force during Brumaire strengthened Bonaparte's hand.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire and after	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_006` Anchor: “recourse to military force strengthened Bonaparte's hand” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	direct	19 Brumaire and after: Source E says recourse to military force strengthened Bon...
`c04_evi_coup_within_coup`	Crook argues that Bonaparte subsequently reshaped the new constitution in a more personalist direction, producing a coup within the original coup.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	19 Brumaire and after	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_006` Anchor: “He then shaped the new constitution in a more personalist direction, creating what Crook calls a coup within the original coup” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	direct	19 Brumaire and after: Source E says recourse to military force strengthened Bon...
`c04_evi_year_viii_reduced_rights_language`	Crook says the Constitution of Year VIII dropped the Declaration of Rights and made references to liberty and equality increasingly perfunctory.	Interpretive	Tested weak signal	December 1799	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_007` Anchor: “the Constitution of Year VIII dropped the Declaration of Rights and made references to liberty and equality increasingly perfunctory” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	background	December 1799: Source E says the Constitution of Year VIII dropped the Declarati...
`c04_evi_consulate_initially_insecure`	The new order was initially insecure, facing divergent reactions, apathy, and disappointing plebiscite returns.	Empirical	Near-neutral	1799-1802	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_008` Anchor: “The new order was not immediately secure. Responses ranged from republican relief to royalist expectation and widespread apathy.” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	1799-1802: Source E says the new order was not immediately secure. Responses ran...
`c04_evi_lucien_doubled_returns`	Crook reports that Lucien Bonaparte effectively doubled disappointing constitutional plebiscite returns.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	1799-1802	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_008` Anchor: “Lucien Bonaparte effectively doubled disappointing vote returns” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	direct	1799-1802: Source E says the new order was not immediately secure. Responses ran...
`c04_evi_legitimacy_built_after_coup`	Broader popularity emerged later through Marengo, repression against lawlessness, and reconciliation with the Catholic Church through the Concordat of 1801.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	1800-1801	`source_e_crook_h_france` `span_c04_009` Anchor: “broader popularity came later through victory at Marengo, repression against lawlessness, and reconciliation with the Catholic Church through the Concordat of 1801” secondary_analysis Critical historiography	indirect	1800-1801: Source E says broader popularity came later through victory at Mareng...
`c04_evi_private_correspondence_gap`	The packet remains unable to directly observe private correspondence among the principal conspirators.	Empirical	Zero relevance	1799 and later interpretation	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c04_017` Anchor: “it is still a curated excerpt packet” secondary_analysis Source limitations	background	This packet improves over a general encyclopedia-style input, but it is still a ...
`c04_evi_missing_decisive_records`	Publication-ready analysis would need correspondence, council records, military orders, police reports, local press, departmental responses, and raw plebiscite returns.	Empirical	Near-neutral	1799 and later interpretation	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c04_017` Anchor: “A publication-ready inquiry would add private correspondence from Sieyes, Talleyrand, Roederer, Lucien Bonaparte, Moreau, and Barras” secondary_analysis Source limitations	background	This packet improves over a general encyclopedia-style input, but it is still a ...
`c04_evi_source_g_bounded_brokerage`	Source G narrows the archival route and adds bounded brokerage evidence but does not close the direct-correspondence gap.	Interpretive	Near-neutral	1799 and later interpretation	`source_g_ayad_bergounioux_roederer` `span_c04_017` Anchor: “Source G narrows the archival route and adds bounded brokerage evidence, but its transcribed excerpts do not close the direct-correspondence gap” secondary_analysis Source limitations	background	This packet improves over a general encyclopedia-style input, but it is still a ...

Policy-Aware Narrative Boundary

The current deterministic ranking is h2 → H0_residual → h3 → h1. Current comparative support is h2: 40%, H0_residual: 24%, h3: 18%, h1: 18%.

The persisted synthesis and hypothesis-verdict prose were reviewed against a different likelihood policy and are therefore withheld from this regenerated presentation. The source-grounded evidence, reviewed mechanism, steelman material, and acquisition agenda remain available; revised verdict or strength language requires fresh synthesis and terminal review.

Limitations & Further Research

Limitations

Source-scope constraint: this synthesis is conditional on the supplied source packet and its provenance, transmission, coverage, and gap metadata. That metadata is non-evidentiary and cannot create evidence items or likelihood splits.
The local sensitivity analysis leaves h2 ranked first, with comparative support ranging from 0.305 to 0.520, while h1 ranges from 0.123 to 0.260, h3 from 0.112 to 0.253, and the residual from 0.188 to 0.289; non-leading positions can therefore swap under perturbation.
The leading rank is not stable under the declared prior perturbation: prior_sensitivity.stable_under_prior_perturbation is false, even though the authoritative local-likelihood rank-stability result is stable.
All three substantive posteriors are mechanically fragile, reflecting accumulation of many weak traces rather than a few decisive tests. H2’s support exceeds its prior but remains below the strong-verdict threshold and lacks a moderate discriminator against H3.
The source corpus contains seven source groups spanning historiography, memoir, primary constitutional and legal texts, proclamations, secondary narrative, and scholarly archival analysis. Memoir, overview, legal, and secondary-transmission items are dependent within source and event chains; Source G supplies transcribed archival excerpts rather than an inspected archival original.
The high-priority gap is private Brumaire correspondence among Sieyes, Bonaparte, Lucien, Murat, Roederer, Talleyrand, and allied intermediaries. This limits claims about intent, internal sequencing, and whether Bonaparte converted a civilian plot into personalist rule.
The typed absence-of-evidence evaluation is empty. The accepted corpus therefore supplies no extractable absence that damages a hypothesis; the missing records are unresolved tests and acquisition needs, not negative evidence. Later legitimacy evidence is indirect for the origin question.

Suggested Further Tests

Acquire and compare private Brumaire correspondence from Sieyes, Bonaparte, Lucien, Murat, Roederer, Talleyrand, and allied intermediaries to test whether Bonaparte’s personalist aims preceded or followed the civilian plan.
Locate contemporaneous military orders, dispatches, and police reports linking Bonaparte’s command, troop positioning, Lucien’s intervention, and the expulsion of representatives; this would discriminate H2 from H3 and H1.
Examine Council attendance lists, minutes, chamber accounts, and orders for the 18–19 Brumaire sessions to determine whether the evening commission was freely constituted, procedurally manipulated, or imposed after expulsion.
Compare drafts and working papers for the Constitution of Year VIII with Sieyes’s earlier revision designs to test whether the final filtered representation and First Consul powers reflected pre-existing civilian plans or Bonaparte’s subsequent conversion.
Use raw plebiscite returns and contemporaneous local responses only as a later, indirect test of legitimacy-building, not as a substitute for evidence about the coup’s origin.

Process Tracing Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Secondary whole-story comparison

Terminal Claim Review

Causal Account and Audit Views

How to Read This Network

Reviewed Mechanism Detail and Audit

Temporal Mechanism DAG

1. Directory design and accumulated stress

2. Bonaparte’s military leverage during renewed crisis

3. Civilian revision project and risky recruitment

4. Brokerage, assigned roles, and coup planning

5. Pre-coup armed preparation

6. Relocation and operational command

7. Strategic military positioning

8. Protection of Gohier and Moulin

9. Barras resigns and the Directory loses its executive body

10. Legislative suspicion and constitutional vows

11. Armed entry and chamber resistance

12. Liberty framing and expulsion of representatives

13. Roundup and proposed executive commission

14. Immediate proclamation

15. Consular decree and legislative adjournment

16. Republican restoration language

17. Year VIII institutional settlement

18. Later legitimacy evidence

Independent stage and edge audit

Audit lineage

Cumulative repair constraints

Terminal constraint-satisfaction judgments

Stage judgments and recommendations

Conservative corrections

Edge judgments

Omission review and recommendations

Output Quality Audit

Corpus-Conditional Methodology Review

Source Material Available to Review

Source Gap Dispositions

Source Transport

Packet Source Coverage

Recommendations by Pipeline Output

Evidence Triage

Recommended Next Steps

Evidence Development

When Extending Beyond These Sources

Temporal Causal Timeline

Hypothesis Partition Audit Adequate

Rival Pair Assessment

Audit and Repair Lineage

Independent Discriminator Audit Accepted

Audit and Re-elicitation Lineage

Inference Provenance

Hypothesis formulation

Evidence excluded from updating

Claim, Event, Source, and Author Dependence

Hypothesis Comparison

Robustness & Sensitivity Analysis

Likelihood Policy Custody and Legacy Sensitivity

Diagnostic Test Matrix

h1: Fragmented civilian elites coordinated to revise the constit 45 informative

h2: Napoleon Bonaparte converted military prestige and troop con 43 informative

h3: Specific episodes during the 19 Brumaire crisis closed previ 48 informative

Bayesian Update Summary

Diagnostic Test Matrix

Evidence Inventory

Policy-Aware Narrative Boundary

Limitations & Further Research

Limitations

Suggested Further Tests